Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability

Abstract

In the classical literature of diplomatic history, the balance-of-power concept occupies a central position. Regardless of one's interpretation of the term or one's preference for or antipathy to it, the international relations scholar cannot escape dealing with it. The model is, of course, a multifaceted one, and it produces a fascinating array of corollaries; among these, the relationship between the number of actors and the stability of the system is one of the most widely accepted and persuasive. That is, as the system moves away from bipolarity toward multipolarity, the frequency and intensity of war should be expected to diminish.

Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme

“…Klasik Realistler bu iki tür devlet grubu arasında bir kamplaşma-nın uluslararası istikrara yönelik asıl tehdit olduğunu düşünürler (Gulick, 1955: 9;Morgenthau, 1993: 378-379;Deutsch ve Singer, 1964). Bu çerçevede vakti geldiğinde revizyonist ve statükocular kozlarını paylaşacak ve savaşa tutuşacaktır.…”

“…Hangi tür uluslararası sistemin daha sürdürülebilir olduğu ve daha az merkezi savaş ürettiği farklı teorik perspektiflerden ele alınmıştır. Bazıları çok kutuplu (Deutsch ve Singer, 1964;Gulick, 1955), bazıları, çift kutuplu (Waltz, 1964;Mearsheimer, 1990;Kagan, 2008), bazıları ise tek kutuplu sistemin istikrarlı olduğunu düşünmüştür (Wohlforth, 1999;Brooks ve Wohlforth, 2008;Copeland, 1996;Wohlforth, 2002). Her biri kuvvetli teorik bir zemine dayanan bu iddialar nadiren toplu değerlendir-melere konu edilmiştir.…”

System and State in International Politics: A Computer Simulation of Balancing in an Anarchic World

“…This combinat:on makes it almost impossible for a state to estimate accurately the consequences of any aggressive actions (Deutsch and Singer, 1964;Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey, 1972). Prudence therefore dictates that a state should refrain from engaging in expansionist activity because of the possible losses that may result.…”

Major Power Interstate Conflict in the Post-World War II Era: an Increase, a Decrease, or No Change?

“…Most observers start from the premise that this time period, unlike the century-and-a-half preceding it, has been bipolar, at least until the late 1960s (Deutsch and Singer, 1964;Waltz, 1967;Rosecrance, 1966; but see Bueno de Mesquita, 1975). This dramatic change in system structure is thought to lead to an equally dramatic change in the amount of conflict.…”