Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Chen, Yang; Yue, Wenze; Xue, Liang; Zhang, Linlin; Chen, Ye’an

doi:10.3390/land10060608

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In addition, we wish to obtain data on the low-efficiency and idle land of Guangzhou City to evaluate the impact of these negative factors on urban land allocation. Finally, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have become far-reaching strategies in China; therefore, we will explore "low-carbon" land use patterns [69].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

Zhu

Liu

et al. 2023

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous allocations of new urban land were ineffective because they lacked synergy between quota and space, challenging the government planning authority. This study proposes a new and more reasonable urban land allocation method to guide the smart growth of cities. We used a logistic regression model and multisource data to explore the laws of urban growth and employed a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate this under inertial and constrained scenarios. In addition, the disparities between both scenarios concerning allocation were analyzed. We realized the synergy of quota and space allocations of new urban land through urban growth simulation. Further, the allocation of new urban land was more consistent with the development strategy of Guangzhou under a constrained scenario. The allocation of space was more regular and concentrated under a constrained scenario, which aligns with the requirements of the Government Land Space Planning. Additionally, in the constrained scenario, the bottom lines of cultivated land protection, ecological service, and geological safety were better controlled. This study compensated for the shortcomings of the disjoined quota and space allocations of new urban land and proved that a constrained scenario can more effectively promote reasonable urban growth.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

Zhu

Liu

et al. 2023

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The world is undergoing a process of rapid urbanization, and people are increasingly concerned about the impact of future urban expansion on carbon emissions. Some studies use different policy interventions to simulate future urban expansion, in order to obtain urban expansion schemes that are more conducive to the reduction of CO 2 emissions [20][21][22][23][24]. Compared with our research, these studies explored urban expansion from a pre-policy intervention perspective.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The third topic concerns the consequences of carbon emissions, as revealed by urban expansion simulations of the future, and how they may support urban development decisions [20][21][22]. Some studies have focused on simulating future urban land-use change and predicting carbon storage losses caused by the expansion of urban fabric into forests, farmlands, and other carbon storage areas [23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China

Zeng

Zhang³

et al. 2022

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Little attention has been paid to the impact of future urban expansion patterns on carbon emissions based on the existing urban pattern of a region. This study used the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and the relationships between regional urbanization and CO2 emissions in the study area were analyzed based on historical data. Urban growth patterns were then simulated in four scenarios that focused on the next 15 years, and they were based on the cellular automaton model. In each different scenario, the CO2 emissions were predicted, and some implications regarding the impact of those emissions were provided. The results showed that as urban land-use intensity increases, CO2 emissions first increase then decrease; however, the rate of decline for CO2 emissions is much slower than the rate at which it rises. Moreover, in the next 15 years, urban expansion will lead to a significant increase in CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions were found to be lowest in the spatial agglomeration scenario and highest in the spatial dispersion scenario. The spatial agglomeration scenario was conducive to understanding how CO2 emissions eventually peak; however, different cities in the study area should adopt different urban expansion patterns. These research results can provide a reference guide for the government with regard to urban planning.

show abstract

“…In recent years, research that assesses ESs in arid areas has gradually increased. These studies mainly seek to quantify ESs, such as soil conservation, wind erosion intensity, water yield, and carbon sequestration, in arid areas [48][49][50]. Water resources are the most critical limiting factor in arid regions, and water-related ESs should be considered.…”

Section: Ecosystem Services Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives on Trade and Its Related LUCC and Ecosystem Services of Central Asian Nations

Zhang

Ren

et al. 2022

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Economic development and trade activities are some of the main driving forces leading to land use and land cover changes (LUCC) with impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) functions. As the origin of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiated by China, Central Asia nations (CANs) provide a prism to examine the impact of LUCC and ESs changes brought by the BRI. The impacts of LUCC and ecological influences were evaluated. The land use transfer matrix and dynamic index, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Carnegie Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model, and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) model were used to evaluate the impact of export trade from the CANs to China (ETCC) on LUCC and ESs in the CANs before and after the BRI. Results showed that before and after BRI (2001–2020), agricultural land and construction land increased by 59,120 km2 and 7617 km2, respectively, while ecological land decreased by 66,737 km2. The annual growth rate of agricultural land and the annual reduction rate of ecological land after the BRI were higher than that before the BRI, while the annual growth rate of construction slowed down. Among the ecological land, the forestland increased by 5828 km2 continuously, while the grassland increased by 12,719 km2 and then decreased of 13,132 km2. The trends for LUCC spatial variation were similar. The development of ETCC positively affected the changes in agricultural and construction land in the CANs and negatively affected the changes in ecological land. The average contribution rates of the ETCC to changes in agriculture, construction, and ecological lands after the BRI were higher than those before the BRI. They increased by 5.01%, 3.33% and 5.01%, respectively. The ESs after the BRI improved compared with those before the BRI, indicating that, during short-term implementation of the BRI, ETCC growth also ensures the ecological protection of CANs. This study provides a reference for dealing with trade, land management and environmental protection relations between member countries of international economic alliances worldwide.

show abstract

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Cited by 12 publications

References 57 publications

Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China

Effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives on Trade and Its Related LUCC and Ecosystem Services of Central Asian Nations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About