The Impact of Urbanization Growth Patterns on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Guizhou, West of China

Abstract

Little attention has been paid to the impact of future urban expansion patterns on carbon emissions based on the existing urban pattern of a region. This study used the Central Guizhou Urban Agglomeration as the study area, and the relationships between regional urbanization and CO2 emissions in the study area were analyzed based on historical data. Urban growth patterns were then simulated in four scenarios that focused on the next 15 years, and they were based on the cellular automaton model. In each different scenario, the CO2 emissions were predicted, and some implications regarding the impact of those emissions were provided. The results showed that as urban land-use intensity increases, CO2 emissions first increase then decrease; however, the rate of decline for CO2 emissions is much slower than the rate at which it rises. Moreover, in the next 15 years, urban expansion will lead to a significant increase in CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions were found to be lowest in the spatial agglomeration scenario and highest in the spatial dispersion scenario. The spatial agglomeration scenario was conducive to understanding how CO2 emissions eventually peak; however, different cities in the study area should adopt different urban expansion patterns. These research results can provide a reference guide for the government with regard to urban planning.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and the Development Path of Land-Use Carbon Emissions from a Low-Carbon Perspective: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

“…Guizhou Province is in charge of three autonomous prefectures as well as six prefecture-level cities. It serves as the transportation hub for the southwest region and an important part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt [23]. Its total area is 176,200 km 2 , of which more than 50% is covered by forest, and the majority of the terrain is plateaus and mountains.…”

Analyzing the Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Fresh Evidence from Pakistan

“…Moreover, the results reveal that urbanization enhances 𝐶𝑂 2 emissions in Pakistan. Zeng et al (2022) pointed out the impact of future URPOP on the concentration of carbon elements in Guizhou and the west of China. This study used urban growth patterns in four scenarios predicting CO2 emissions in the next fifteen years.…”