Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States

Abstract

Climate risk is a consequence of climate hazards, exposure, and the vulnerability (IPCC 2014). Here, we assess future (2040–2049) climate risk for the entire contiguous US at the county level with a novel climate risk index integrating multiple hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities. Future, weather and climate hazards are characterized as frequency of heat wave, cold spells, dryer, and heavy precipitation events along with anomalies of temperature and precipitation using high resolution (4 km) downscaled climate projections. Exposure is characterized by projections of population, infrastructure, and built surfaces prone to multiple hazards including sea level rise and storm surges. Vulnerability is characterized by projections of demographic groups most sensitive to climate hazards. We found Florida, California, the central Gulf Coast, and North Atlantic at high climate risk in the future. However, the contributions to this risk vary regionally. Florida is projected to be equally hard hit by the three components of climate risk. The coastal counties in the Gulf states of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama are at high climate risk due to high exposure and hazard. High exposure and vulnerability drive high climate risk in California counties. This approach can guide planners in targeting counties at most risk and where adaptation strategies to reduce exposure or protect vulnerable populations might be best applied.

A multi-hazard map-based flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Iran

“…Lithology. Rock permeability, which is related to lithology, may affect flood susceptibility 28,[81][82][83] and gully erosion 5 . We obtained a geology map from the Geological Survey of Iran and produced a layer of 14 units in the ArcGIS 10.8 (Fig.…”

“…These tools include multi-hazard maps created using machine learning tools that show the spatial distribution of the full spectrum of hazards in a region 2 . Examples of areas where such multi-hazard evaluations have been performed include Greece (flooding depth, lateral erosion, earthquakes, and landslides) 4 , the United States (weather and climate hazards) 5 , Sikkim State, India (landslide and earthquake) 6 , the Adriatic Sea (smothering and sealing, abrasion and extraction, underwater noise, sea surface temperature variation, and sea surface salinity variation) 7 , and Chile (weatherrelated hazards, including coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress, and wildfire) 8 . The interaction of these multi-hazards could be useful for further research in this field.…”

Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

“…In the risk projections, we gave equal weights when summing the different risk components, which is a common procedure in climate risk index studies (e.g. Binita et al 2021;Shukla et al 2021). We downscaled all projections to the postal code area scale based on current distributions to build detailed maps and compare spatial patterns.…”

Modeling-Based Risks Assessment and Management of Climate Change in South Korean Forests

“…The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources [34,43,44] Climate change scenarios such as temperature and precipitation from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [45,46] Vulnerability AR3, 4, 5, 6…”