Forests play an important role in regulating the carbon (C) cycle. The main objective of this study was to quantify the effects of South Korean national reforestation programs on carbon budgets. We estimated the changes in C stocks and annual C sequestration in the years 1961–2014 using Korea-specific models, a forest cover map (FCM), national forest inventory (NFI) data, and climate data. Furthermore, we examined the differences in C budgets between Cool forests (forests at elevations above 700 m) and forests in lower-altitude areas. Simulations including the effects of climate conditions on forest dynamics showed that the C stocks of the total forest area increased from 6.65 Tg C in 1961 to 476.21 Tg C in 2014. The model developed here showed a high degree of spatiotemporal reliability. The mean C stocks of the Cool forests and other forests increased from 4.03 and 0.43 Mg C ha−1, respectively, to 102.43 and 73.76 Mg C ha−1 at a rate of 1.82 and 1.36 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 during the same period. These results imply that, although the total Cool forest area of South Korea occupied only about 12.3% (772,788 ha) of the total forest area, the Cool forests play important roles in C balances and forest ecosystems in South Korea. Annual C sequestration totals are projected to decrease at a low rate in the near future because the overall growth rate of a mature forest decreases as the stand ages. Our results quantified forest C dynamics in South Korean forests before and after national reforestation programs. Furthermore, our results can help in development of regional and national forest management strategies to allow for sustainable development of society and to cope with climate change in South Korea.

Climate change-induced heat waves increase the global risk of forest fires, intensifying biomass burning and accelerating climate change in a vicious cycle. This presents a challenge to the response system in heavily forested South Korea, increasing the risk of more frequent and large-scale fire outbreaks. This study aims to optimize IIASAs wildfire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM)—a processed-based model integrating biophysical and human impacts—to South Korea for projecting the pattern and scale of future forest fires. The developments performed in this study include: (1) the optimization of probability algorithms in FLAM based on the national GIS data downscaled to 1 km2 with additional factors introduced for national specific modeling; (2) the improvement of soil moisture computation by adjusting the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) to represent vegetation feedbacks by fitting soil moisture to daily remote sensing data; and (3) projection on future forest fire frequency and burned area. Our results show that optimization has considerably improved the modeling of seasonal patterns of forest fire frequency. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between monthly predictions and observations from national statistics over 2016–2022 was improved from 0.171 in the non-optimized to 0.893 in the optimized FLAM. These findings imply that FLAMs main algorithms for interpreting biophysical and human impacts on forest fire at a global scale are only applicable to South Korea after the optimization of all modules, and climate change is the main driver of the recent increases in forest fires. Projections for forest fire were produced for four periods until 2100 based on the forest management plan, which included three management scenarios (current, ideal, and overprotection). Ideal management led to a reduction of 60–70% of both fire frequency and burned area compared to the overprotection scenario. This study should be followed by research for developing adaptation strategies corresponding to the projected risks of future forest fires.

Solar energy generation has become one of the most popular renewable energy sources for achieving global carbon neutrality. This transition to land-intensive energy generates inevitable land use conflicts with existing land cover, such as forest or agricultural land. South Korea is one of the countries currently experiencing conflicts in land use between ecosystems, food and energy. In addition, various land use problems occur, such as deforestation due to developments and an increase in idle agricultural land due to a decrease in the labor force. Thus, it is important to establish future land use policies that consider these issues. This study conducted a net present value (NPV) analysis for solving land use conflict by comparing monetary value according to different land use cases. Two land use scenarios were investigated: 1) land cover maintained (forest or agricultural land) and 2) land use change for solar energy generation. These two scenarios were compared in the target areas selected in this study to determine the criteria for the solar energy generation site. The economic values from Scenario 1were calculated primarily using ecosystem services assessment and market value, and those of Scenario 2 were calculated based on statistical data. The total suitable area for solar energy generation in Korea was 551,393 ha. As results, the NPV of forest ecosystem services was higher than that of solar energy generation in forest. In the case of idle agricultural land, agriculture caused a continuous deficit owing to carbon emissions, and accordingly, the carbon reduction effect through solar energy generation had a greater value than agricultural activities. This study attempted to resolve land use conflict by considering carbon neutrality through comparing economic values and introducing ecosystem services assessment and carbon credit price in the process of the analysis.

Background Forests are atmospheric carbon sinks, whose natural growth can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, they are also affected by climate change and various other phenomena, for example, the low growth of coniferous forests currently reported globally, including in the Republic of Korea. In response to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the Korean government has proposed 2030 greenhouse gas roadmap to achieve a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and the forest sector set a sequestration target of 26 million tons by 2030. In this study, the Korean forest growth model (KO-G-Dynamic model) was used to analyze various climate change and forest management scenarios and their capacity to address the NDC targets. A 2050 climate change adaptation strategy is suggested based on forest growth and CO2 sequestration. Results Forest growth was predicted to gradually decline, and CO2 sequestration was predicted to reach 23 million tons per year in 2050 if current climate and conditions are maintained. According to the model, sequestrations of 33 million tCO2 year−1 in 2030 and 27 million tCO2 year−1 in 2050 can be achieved if ideal forest management is implemented. It was also estimated that the current forest management budget of 317 billion KRW (264 million USD) should be twice as large at 722 billion KRW (602 million USD) in the 2030s and 618 billion KRW (516 million USD) in the 2050s to achieve NDC targets. Conclusions The growth trend in Korea's forests transitions from young-matured stands to over-mature forests. The presented model-based forest management plans are an appropriate response and can increase the capacity of Korea to achieve its NDC targets. Such a modeling can help the forestry sector develop plans and policies for climate change adaptation.

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Carbon stored on land is discharged into rivers through water flow, which is an important mechanism for energy transfer from land to river ecosystems. The goal of this study was to identify the relationship between land cover and carbon flux mediated through precipitation. In order to clarify the general relationship, research was conducted on a range of national scales. Eighty-two watershed samples from an area where the urban land cover area was less than 10% and with a water-quality measurement point at an outlet were delineated. Carbon flux and soil organic carbon of the watershed was estimated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, Forest Biomass and Dead Organic Matter Carbon model, and other data. Finally, the data were analyzed to determine the relationship between soil organic carbon and carbon flux. As a result, it was concluded that the carbon flux of the watershed increased with increasing area of the watershed. Under the same area condition, it was revealed that the greater the forest soil organic carbon, the less the carbon flux released from the watershed. Through this study, it was observed that as the above-ground biomass of forest increased, the carbon flux from watershed to river outlet decreased logarithmically.