Money, Inflation, and Output Under Fiat and Commodity Standards

Rolnick, Arthur J.; Weber, Warren E.

doi:10.21034/qr.2222

Cited by 27 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Based on graphs of filtered series, they pick 1929, 1955, and 1976 as break dates for the time-invariant VAR case but do not formally test for breaks. Rolnick and Weber (1997) argued instead that the relationship of money with other variables depends on whether there is a commodity or fiat monetary standard. They calculated average growth rates and inflation rates over an entire sample period for each of 15 countries.…”

Section: Structuralmentioning

confidence: 99%

Money, Output, and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001

Haug¹,

Dewald²

2011

Economic Inquiry

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Abstract:We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band-pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880-2001 without gaps, for eleven industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer-term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes. JEL code: E3

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Section: Structuralmentioning

confidence: 99%

Money, Output, and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001

Haug¹,

Dewald²

2011

Economic Inquiry

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“…2 Our sample begins in 1859, as data for earlier 5-year episodes are often unavailable for more than two countries, and ends in 2004. Data on the general price level and output data up to 1980 are obtained from Rolnick and Weber (1997) and Backus and Kehoe (1992) for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States. These data run from early periods to 1992 through 1995 depending on the country.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link

Benhabib¹,

Spiegel²

2006

ERWP

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Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship exists over the range of negative to moderate inflation. Our results confirm a positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is nonlinear over the entire sample range.JEL codes: E3, E5, E6, E31, E42, E52, E58, E65

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“…Empirical results across countries are not unequivocal either. Lucas (1980), Lothian (1985), Hafer (1988, 1999), McCandless and Weber (1995), Rolnick and Weber (1997) and others find substantial correlations of money growth and inflation across countries for different time periods. Moroney (2002) and De Grauwe and Polan (2005) examine a common criticism of such analyses, namely that the correlations are driven by the high inflation countries and there is little relationship between money growth and inflation for low inflation countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation and Monetary Regimes

Dwyer

Fisher

2009

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: Correlations of inflation with the growth rate of money increase when data are averaged over longer time periods. Correlations of inflation with the growth of money also are higher when high-inflation as well as low-inflation countries are included in the analysis. We show that serial correlation in the underlying inflation rate ties these two observations together and explains them. We present evidence that averaging increases the correlation of inflation and money growth more when the underlying inflation rate has higher serial correlation. Terms of use: Documents inJEL classification: E31, E5

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Money, Inflation, and Output Under Fiat and Commodity Standards

Abstract: This publication primarily presents economic research ai med at improving policymaking by the Federal Reserve System and other governmental authorities.

Cited by 27 publications

References 6 publications

Money, Output, and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001

Money, Output, and Inflation in the Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001

Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link

Inflation and Monetary Regimes

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