Modelling of permafrost freezing and melting and the impact of a climatic cycle on groundwater flow at the Meuse/Haute-Marne site

Holmén, Johann; Benabderrahmane, H.; Buoro, Alvaro; Brulhet, Jacques

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2011.10.021

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…In the latter study, a lower porosity was used (down to 30 %), which favours the development of permafrost and thus explains the deeper permafrost. We now compare the results to other permafrost depth modelling results for NW Europe during the Weichselian or a future analogue from Delisle (1998), Grassmann et al (2010), Hartikainen et al (2010), Holmén et al (2011), Kitover et al (2013) and Busby et al (2015). These different modelling exercises revealed quite contrasting permafrost depths for the LGM, which is not surprising given that different approaches and parameter values were used with respect to palaeotemperatures, duration of cold phases, subsoil thermal properties, porosity, heat flux, ice advance, etc.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Kitover et al (2013) used an extended cold period of unknown duration and a MAAT of −8 • C to produce steady-state continuous permafrost reaching 300 m depth. Holmén et al (2011) calculated a median permafrost depth for northwestern France of ca. 120 m using a MAAT of −6 • C for the coldest peak during a future Weichselian analogue.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Just below the liquidus temperature, there will be mostly liquid water phases. This approach is similar to the one used by Mottaghy and Rath (2006), Bense et al (2009), Noetzli and Gruber (2009), Holmén et al (2011 and Kitover et al (2013). Values for the porosity, density and specific heat of the different components are given in Table 1.…”

Section: Mathematical and Numerical Model For Permafrost Growth And Dmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Govaerts

Beerten

Veen³

2016

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The Rupelian clay in the Netherlands is currently the subject of a feasibility study with respect to the storage of radioactive waste in the Netherlands (OPERA-project). Many features need to be considered in the assessment of the long-term evolution of the natural environment surrounding a geological waste disposal facility. One of these is permafrost development as it may have an impact on various components of the disposal system, including the natural environment (hydrogeology), the natural barrier (clay) and the engineered barrier. Determining how deep permafrost might develop in the future is desirable in order to properly address the possible impact on the various components. It is expected that periglacial conditions will reappear at some point during the next several hundred thousands of years, a typical time frame considered in geological waste disposal feasibility studies. In this study, the Weichselian glaciation is used as an analogue for future permafrost development. Permafrost depth modelling using a best estimate temperature curve of the Weichselian indicates that permafrost would reach depths between 155 and 195 m. Without imposing a climatic gradient over the country, deepest permafrost is expected in the south due to the lower geothermal heat flux and higher average sand content of the post-Rupelian overburden. Accounting for various sources of uncertainty, such as type and impact of vegetation, snow cover, surface temperature gradients across the country, possible errors in palaeoclimate reconstructions, porosity, lithology and geothermal heat flux, stochastic calculations point out that permafrost depth during the coldest stages of a glacial cycle such as the Weichselian, for any location in the Netherlands, would be 130-210 m at the 2σ level. In any case, permafrost would not reach depths greater than 270 m. The most sensitive parameters in permafrost development are the mean annual air temperatures and porosity, while the geothermal heat flux is the crucial parameter in permafrost degradation once temperatures start rising again.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mathematical and Numerical Model For Permafrost Growth And Dmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Govaerts

Beerten

Veen³

2016

The Cryosphere

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“…In this paper, we focus on the characterization of the thermal field beneath and around the lake, studying the influence of variations of thermal properties and past ground surface temperature changes using numerical modeling techniques (e.g. Osterkamp and Gosink, 1991;Galushkin, 1997;Mottaghy and Rath, 2006;Holmén et al, 2011). In the recent years, the impact of climate change on permafrost formation and evolution has become a particular subject of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling

Mottaghy¹,

Schwamborn

Rath

2013

Clim. Past

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Abstract. This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature.The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (up to 4 K), with low temperatures prevailing far into the 20th century. Other mechanisms, like varying porosity, may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modeling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

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“…While a first quasi 3D model of the basin was built by Wei et al, (1990), some recent models incorporate the impact of the geological and morphological evolution of the basin on groundwater flows (Gonçalvès et al, 2003(Gonçalvès et al, , 2004Jost et al 2007). Holmen et al (2011) used a hydrogeological model of the Paris Basin to simulate, in a specific region of interest, the impact of climate and permafrost on groundwater flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of thermohaline effects on groundwater modelling – Application to the Paris sedimentary Basin

Hoyos¹,

Viennot²,

Ledoux³

et al. 2012

Journal of Hydrology

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Modelling of permafrost freezing and melting and the impact of a climatic cycle on groundwater flow at the Meuse/Haute-Marne site

Cited by 15 publications

References 2 publications

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Weichselian permafrost depth in the Netherlands: a comprehensive uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling

Influence of thermohaline effects on groundwater modelling – Application to the Paris sedimentary Basin

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