Modelling climate change impacts on marine fish populations: process‐based integration of ocean warming, acidification and other environmental drivers

Abstract

Global climate change affects marine fish through drivers such as ocean warming, acidification and oxygen depletion, causing changes in marine ecosystems and socioeconomic impacts. While experimental and observational results can inform about anticipated effects of different drivers, linking between these results and ecosystem‐level changes requires quantitative integration of physiological and ecological processes into models to advance research and inform management. We give an overview of important physiological and ecological processes affected by environmental drivers. We then provide a review of available modelling approaches for marine fish, analysing their capacities for process‐based integration of environmental drivers. Building on this, we propose approaches to advance important research questions. Examples of integration of environmental drivers exist for each model class. Recent extensions of modelling frameworks increase the potential for including detailed mechanisms and improving model projections. Experimental results on energy allocation, behaviour and physiological limitations will advance the understanding of organism‐level trade‐offs and thresholds in response to multiple drivers. More explicit representation of life cycles and biological traits can improve description of population dynamics and adaptation, and data on food web topology and feeding interactions help to detail the conditions for possible regime shifts. Identification of relevant processes will also benefit the coupling of different models to investigate spatial–temporal changes in stock productivity and integrated responses of social–ecological systems. Thus, a more process‐informed foundation for models will promote the integration of experimental and observational results and increase the potential for model‐based extrapolations into a future under changing environmental conditions.

Ocean acidification has lethal and sub-lethal effects on larval development of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares

“…Understanding the potential effects of OA on large pelagic fish is, however, of utmost importance as their sensitivity may not reflect that of the model coral reef fish (Koenigstein et al, 2016). Commercial species, such as yellowfin tuna, are further challenged by OA as fishing can destabilize the population and the ecosystem, and thereby reduce the capacity of populations to respond to climate change (Planque et al, 2010).…”

Predicting shifting sustainability trade‐offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change

“…We chose the aquaculture sector as a model system to test how climate change (IPCC AR5 scenarios; 2015 vs. 2030 vs. 2050) will affect the sustainable management of a critical natural resource. Mechanistic FT‐based models are ideal in aquaculture and in most intensive terrestrial cultures (Koenigstein, Mark, Gößling‐Reisemann, Reuter, & Poertner, ) since the effects of species interactions (e.g., competition for space and resource and predator‐prey relationships) can be controlled via active management. We applied such mechanistic FT‐based models on the Mediterranean seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax (Supporting information Figure S3).…”

Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe's fish and shellfish

“…Having more results from similar studies conducted in different regions is important if we hope to be able to detect local/regional adaptation, which has been documented in various species (Baumann & Conover, 2011;Crozier & Hutchings, 2014;Ojaveer & Kalejs, 2005). These gaps in knowledge must be acknowledged when parameterizing mechanistic (i.e., physiological-based) models to project climate impacts across species and regions (Koenigstein et al, 2016;Teal et al, 2018). Climate projection is inherently uncertain (Payne et al, 2016) and, until these gaps in our knowledge base are filled, one could argue that it may not be possible to generate robust, regionally specific "climate-ready" advice needed for the strategic or tactical management of aquatic resources.…”