Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe's fish and shellfish

Abstract

An amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish.

A Global Review on the Biology of the Dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) and Its Fishery in the Mediterranean Sea: Advances in the Last Two Decades

“…All these data may be biased because they refer to particular stocks or derive from single-factor experiments. As recognized in Catalán et al (2019), it is necessary to compare data from populations in different areas to account for phenotypic or genetic adaptation, and to analyze interactions between experimental drivers.…”

Reduced Reproductive Success of Western Baltic Herring (Clupea harengus) as a Response to Warming Winters

“…On land, the immediate effect of changing climate regimes on the timing of seasonal succession and processes in nature is noticed as a present-day threat to species' reproductive success (Nature Climate Change, 2018). In the marine environment, however, most attention is paid to the direct physiological effects of global ocean warming and acidification (Catalán et al, 2019). In aquatic systems, shifts in the seasonal order of natural phenomena are not as readily visible as in terrestrial systems, but have been reported from a variety of temperate oceans particularly for fish species subjected to a seasonal gradient in migration, feeding, and reproduction (Platt et al, 2003;Edwards and Richardson, 2004;Rogers and Dougherty, 2019).…”

Combined effects of ocean acidification and temperature on larval and juvenile growth, development and swimming performance of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

“…Gaining a mechanistic, physiologically-based understanding of how OAW affects marine flora and fauna is essential for reliable projections of future effects of climate change [7]. Studies examining the consequences of OA on marine organisms have mainly focused on calcifying invertebrates [8, 9] with far fewer studies conducted on fish [10]. In fish, accumulating bicarbonate is a classical response aimed at regulating acid-base balance when the internal milieu acidifies.…”