Modelling and mapping of plant phenological stages as bio-meteorological indicators for climate change

Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Günther; Schönrock, Simon

doi:10.1186/2190-4715-26-5

Cited by 30 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…Máguas et al 2011), one would expect them to respond to climatic variables by adjusting their phenological phases (i.e. the timing of phenological events), as had been previously demonstrated (Seghieri et al 2012;Schröder et al 2014). The abovementioned findings corroborate our observations that A. longifolia displayed different phenological timings in a mesic and in a xeric climate (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Do climatic and habitat conditions affect the reproductive success of an invasive tree species? An assessment of the phenology of Acacia longifolia in Portugal

et al. 2014

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Plant phenological events are some of the most sensitive indicators of how plant species respond to favourable or stressful conditions. The evaluation of the flowering phenology of invasive plant species is particularly relevant, mainly due to its crucial importance in determining plant reproductive success and the outcome of invasion. We studied the phenology of Acacia longifolia, an aggressive, invasive plant species in the Mediterranean basin. We measured its vegetative growth and reproductive traits, specifically flowering phenophases and fruit production, under different climatic conditions (mesic and xeric Mediterranean climates), and in two different habitats (pine forest and open area). All the measured phenological phases began earlier at the xeric site than at the mesic site; this was particularly evident when comparing reproductive phenophases. Flowering dates were significantly associated with air temperature, with early peak flowering dates linked to increases in air temperature. The number of fruiting flowers per inflorescence in A. longifolia trees was higher at the mesic site, mainly in the pine forest plot, and the number of aborted fruits was notably lower than in the xeric plots. The presence of a pine forest at the mesic site strongly influenced the flowering phenology of A. longifolia and resulted in the highest reproductive success and the lowest branch growth rate. Our results demonstrate that a combination of climate and forest structure can cause pronounced differences in phenology and reproductive success of A. longifolia. These data can help to understand the variations in invasive rates of A. longifolia across the Mediterranean basin.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Do climatic and habitat conditions affect the reproductive success of an invasive tree species? An assessment of the phenology of Acacia longifolia in Portugal

et al. 2014

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“…The shifts in phenological development identified for the projection periods in the current study are comparable to those reported by other studies for European conditions [ 15 , 34 ]. Schröder et al [ 34 ], for instance, found an advancement of up to 10 days of phenological stages in the first half year, based on simulations by 10 climate models for the period 2031–60 (temperature projection +3.7 °C in 2100) for Hessen, Germany.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical stages of crop production in Northern Germany

2018

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BackgroundUnderstanding the abundance of adverse environmental conditions e.g. frost, drought, and heat during critical crop growth stages, which are assumed to be altered by climate change, is crucial for an accurate risk assessment for cropping systems. While a lengthening of the vegetation period may be beneficial, higher frequencies of heat or frost events and drought spells are generally regarded as harmful. The objective of the present study was to quantify shifts in maize and wheat phenology and the occurrence of adverse environmental conditions during critical growth stages for four regions located in the North German Plain. First, a statistical analysis of phenological development was conducted based on recent data (1981–2010). Next, these data were used to calibrate the DSSAT-CERES wheat and maize models, which were then used to run three climate projections representing the maximum, intermediate and minimum courses of climate development within the RCP 8.5 continuum during the years 2021–2050. By means of model simulation runs and statistical analysis, the climate data were evaluated for the abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical development stages, i.e. the stages of early crop development, anthesis, sowing and harvest.ResultsProxies for adverse environmental conditions included thresholds of low and high temperatures as well as soil moisture. The comparison of the baseline climate and future climate projections showed a significant increase in the abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical growth stages in the future. The lengthening of the vegetation period in spring did not compensate for the increased abundance of high temperatures, e.g. during anthesis.ConclusionsThe results of this study indicate the need to develop adaptation strategies, such as implementing changes in cropping calendars. An increase in frost risk during early development, however, reveals the limited feasibility of early sowing as a mitigation strategy. In addition, the abundance of low soil water contents that hamper important production processes such as sowing and harvest were found to increase locally.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12302-018-0138-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…To obtain a statistical forecast of maize planting dates and yields in the future, simulated weather data could be used as model input, as in Schröder et al. () for phenology and Ewert et al. () for yields.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

Parker

Shonkwiler

Aurbacher

2016

J Agronomy Crop Science

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An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.

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Modelling and mapping of plant phenological stages as bio-meteorological indicators for climate change

Cited by 30 publications

References 50 publications

Do climatic and habitat conditions affect the reproductive success of an invasive tree species? An assessment of the phenology of Acacia longifolia in Portugal

Do climatic and habitat conditions affect the reproductive success of an invasive tree species? An assessment of the phenology of Acacia longifolia in Portugal

Abundance of adverse environmental conditions during critical stages of crop production in Northern Germany

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

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