Based on a Ricardian analysis accounting for spatial autocorrelation and relying on recent climate change forecasts at a low spatial scale, this study assesses the impact of climate change on German agriculture. Given the limited availability of data (e.g., the unknown average soil quality at the district level), a spatial error model is used in order to obtain unbiased marginal effects. The Ricardian analysis is performed using data from the 1999 agricultural census along with data from the network of German weather observation stations. The cross-sectional analysis yields an increase of land rent along with both a rising mean temperature and a declining spring precipitation, except for in the Eastern part of the country. The subsequent simulation of local land rent changes under three different IPCC scenarios is done by entering into the estimated regression equations spatially processed data averages for the period between 2011 and 2040 from the regional climate model REMO. The resulting expected benefits arising from climate change are represented in maps containing the 439 German districts; the calculated overall rent increase corresponds to approximately 5-6% of net German agricultural income. However, in the long run, when temperature and precipitation changes will be more severe than those simulated for 2011-2040, income losses for German agriculture cannot be excluded.

No abstract

No abstract

An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.

Irrigated agriculture has been popularized as a key factor to improve crop yields and enhance food security in Africa. However, empirical findings are mixed. This study analyzes determinants of small-scale irrigation adoption and the impact this may have on food security in Ethiopia, where agricultural land is extremely fragmented and densely populated. Data were collected from 240 farmers, and the findings from the survey were triangulated with focus group discussions and key informant interviews. First, the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices indicated high poverty levels among farmers without access to irrigation. Second, accounting for a self-selection bias by using the endogenous switching regression (ESR) model, scheme governance, perceived water scarcity, and access to information were found to have significant effects on the adoption of irrigation schemes. Model estimates further indicated that access to small-scale irrigation resulted in better living conditions for both current users and non-users when compared to their counterfactual situations. Farm income of the user households would decrease by 42% (birr 151,419 or US$ 5,500 per ha) had they not used irrigation. Similarly, farm income of the non-users would increase by 149% had they used irrigation. Per adult equivalent consumption expenditure has also shown a decrease of 35% for irrigation users and an increase of 40% for non-users compared to their respective counterfactual situations. We conclude that much of the perceived water scarcity level is attributed to existing governance regimes more than the physical scarcity of water. The study draws several implications for household food security and local-based water use policies.