Modeling the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Abstract

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease spread by infected rodents known as multimammate rats. The disease has posed a significant and major health challenge in West African countries, including Nigeria. To have a deeper understanding of Lassa fever epidemiology in Nigeria, we present a deterministic dynamical model to study its dynamical transmission behavior in the population. To mimic the disease’s biological history, we divide the population into two groups: humans and rodents. We established the quantity known as reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The results show that if $${\mathcal {R}}_{0} <1$$ R 0 < 1 then the system is stable, otherwise it is unstable. The model fitting was performed using the nonlinear least square method on cumulative reported cases from Nigeria between 2018 and 2020 to obtain the best fit that describes the dynamics of this disease in Nigeria. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed, and the numerical solution of the system was derived using an iterative scheme, the fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Using different numeric values for each parameter, we investigate the effect of all highest sensitivity indices’ parameters on the population of infected humans and infected rodents. Our findings indicate that any control strategies and methods that reduce rodent populations and the risk of transmission from rodents to humans and rodents would aid in the population’s control of Lassa fever.

Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa fever: A mathematical modeling approach

“…Most single transmission routes are less harmful, but when they operate in combination with other transmission routes, they contribute additional damage to the system. Studies ( Ibrahim & Dénes, 2021 ; Ojo et al., 2021 ; Onah et al., 2020 ; Peter et al., 2020 ) that only concentrated on the human and rodent direct transmission routes have not captured valuable information on the environmental impact towards the progression of the infection. This work gives a more comprehensive breakdown of the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever as it integrates indirect transmission routes which are sometimes neglected but play a crucial role in increasing the infection statistics.…”

“…Several studies have laid a basis to understand the dynamics of Lassa fever. Some of the studies on Lassa Fever ( Ojo et al., 2021 ; Onah et al., 2020 ; Onuorah et al., 2016 ) only considered the basic transmission pathways namely, the human-to-human and the rodent-to-human. Because a great percentage of people show little or no symptoms of Lassa fever, Peter, et al.…”

Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa Fever: a mathematical modeling approach

“…Most single transmission routes are less harmful, but when they operate in combination with other transmission routes, they contribute additional damage to the system. Studies (Onah et al, 2020; Ojo et al, 2021; Peter et al, 2020; Ibrahim and Dénes, 2021) that only concentrated on the human and rodent direct transmission routes have not captured valuable information on the environmental impact towards the progression of the infection. This work gives a more comprehensive breakdown of the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever as it integrates indirect transmission routes which are sometimes neglected but play a crucial role in increasing the infection statistics.…”

“…Several studies have laid a basis to understand the dynamics of Lassa fever. Some of the studies on Lassa Fever (Onah et al, 2020;Onuorah et al, 2016;Ojo et al, 2021) only considered the basic transmission pathways namely, the human-to-human and the rodent-to-human. Because a great percentage of people show little or no symptoms of Lassa fever, Peter, et al (Peter et al, 2020) described Lassa fever transmission dynamics using a deterministic model integrating the exposed human and rat compartment instead of the usual SIR compartmental structure.…”

“…Several studies have laid a basis to understand the dynamics of Lassa fever. Some of the studies on Lassa Fever (Onah et al, 2020; Onuorah et al, 2016; Ojo et al, 2021) only considered the basic transmission pathways namely, the human-to-human and the rodent-to-human. Because a great percentage of people show little or no symptoms of Lassa fever, Peter, et al .…”