Modeling and Forecasting of Innovative, Scientific and Technical Activity Indicators Under Unstable Economic Situation in the Country: Case of Ukraine

Halkiv, Lіubov; Karyy, Оleh; Kulyniak, Ihor; Ohinok, Solomiya

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-61656-4_5

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…There are many approaches to choosing an R&D product commercialization strategy, but none of the current ones takes into account technological forecasting of R&D product market behaviour. Taking into account the best practices of scientists [33]- [38], we have formed a system for choosing the strategy of commercialization of R&D product, based on three methods of commercialization:…”

Section: Evaluating Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Method of Technological Forecasting of Market Behaviour of R&D Products

Kozyk¹,

Mrykhina²,

Lisovska³

et al. 2021

Adv. sci. technol. eng. syst. j.

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The current concept of open innovation corresponds to the R&D products transfer model -"role changes". One of the fundamental provisions of the model is that R&D products are considered for commercialization not only at the final stage of technological readiness, but at any of them. In today's changing market environment, special attention is paid to the transfer and commercialization of R&D products at the early stages of readiness, but this process is characterized by significant problems from the point of view of technological forecasting. To solve the problems, the article substantiates the method of technological forecasting of market behaviour of R&D products at the early stages of technological readiness, which is based on taking into account the strengths and weaknesses, development factors and limiting factors of R&D product. The method allows you to predict indicators of product behaviour relative to the market where its commercialization is planned. As a component of the above method and in order to increase the level of reliability of calculations and validity of results, a method for determining the correction factor of indicators of market behaviour of R&D product has been developed. The method was developed on the basis of fuzzy set theory algorithms using the fuzzy logic toolbox (MATLAB), which made it possible to integrate a set of different types of forecast data on the market behaviour of an R&D product, taking into account the relationships and interdependencies between them, into one correction factor. This coefficient contains the characteristics of signs of the impact of R&D product on the market (in particular, market effects, types of market changes) and the impact of market effects on R&D product (effects generated by R&D products, organizational and technological changes in R&D products). To justify the correction factor, a knowledge base of responses from subject area experts has been formed. In order to further select a commercialization strategy for R&D product, a system with normative indicators has been developed that interpret the following types of strategies: zero-level commercialization of R&D product; first-level commercialization of R&D product; commercialization of the second level of R&D product. The author's method of technological forecasting of market behaviour of R&D products and choosing a commercialization strategy for a product is universal, can be applied to R&D product of any type of economic activity, transfer method, etc. Testing of the method on the example of a number of R&D products presented by the developers of the Lviv Polytechnic National University (Lviv, Ukraine) showed the validity of the author's method and its relevance in modern conditions of market singularity.

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Section: Evaluating Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Method of Technological Forecasting of Market Behaviour of R&D Products

Kozyk¹,

Mrykhina²,

Lisovska³

et al. 2021

Adv. sci. technol. eng. syst. j.

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“…Unfortunately, the actual annual macroeconomic data for the period covering the exacerbation of the COVID-19 pandemic are not currently presented by statistical agencies, especially since the lag between the crisis and real feedback from the economy can reach 2-3 years. At the same time, we have the opportunity to predict the situation with the economy of an individual country after the end of the pandemic, based on retrospective analysis (Halkiv et al, 2020). Furthermore, we can analyze the economic cyclicality and the relationship between cyclicality and investment dynamics.…”

Section: C) Reorientation Of International Investment Projects To the Principles Of Cluster Investment And Modification Of Postulates Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prospects for the Reorientation of Investment Flows for Sustainable Development under the Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Prokopenko¹,

Toktosunova²,

Sharsheeva³

et al. 2021

PROBL EKOROZW

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The article is devoted to substantiating the expediency of reorienting international investment flows, under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, from traditional directions to projects related to social transformation. It is proved that such transformations should be expressed first of all in qualitative changes in education, medicine and employment. Particular attention is paid to the modernization of the paradigm of sustainable development, the components of which should be ranked from social to environmental. The necessity of interpretation of investment strategies implemented in the countries following their common problems is substantiated. Also, attention is paid to the substantiation of the cyclical component, its role in the redistribution of investment flows at the state level. The article proposed cluster investment to solve this problem.

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“…According to the Code of Civil Protection of Ukraine, an emergency is a situation on a separate territory or business entity on it or a water body, which is characterized by the violation of normal living conditions caused by a catastrophe, accident, fire, natural disaster, epidemic, epizootic, epitope, the use of means of destruction or another dangerous event that has led (may lead) to a threat to life or health of the population, a large number of dead and injured, causing significant material damage, as well as the impossibility of living in such an area or facility, conducting economic activities on it (Halkiv et al, 2020;Kuzmenko et al, 2019).…”

Section: Emergency and Emergency Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Management Tools for Emergencies in the Context of Global Informatization

Холод

Iefimova

Halynska

et al. 2021

EEA

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Global informatization has brought many changes to all spheres of life. At the turn of the century, it becomes clear that along with tremendous technical achievements and radical geopolitical changes, the outgoing era's main result was a change in the world's systemic properties. Ensuring safety in emergency situations is one of the most critical tasks of modern human development. The risks from these events can be catastrophic, which is why the authors devoted their research to the study of the theoretical and methodological foundations, as well as the development of recommendations for improving risk management tools in emergency management in the context of global informatization.

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Modeling and Forecasting of Innovative, Scientific and Technical Activity Indicators Under Unstable Economic Situation in the Country: Case of Ukraine

Cited by 12 publications

References 28 publications

Method of Technological Forecasting of Market Behaviour of R&D Products

Method of Technological Forecasting of Market Behaviour of R&D Products

Prospects for the Reorientation of Investment Flows for Sustainable Development under the Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Risk Management Tools for Emergencies in the Context of Global Informatization

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