Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States

Epidemic and Economic Impacts of Delayed Detection of Foot-And-Mouth Disease: A Case Study of a Simulated Outbreak in California

“…Similarly, the previous study 16 reported that the median number of animals slaughtered in the IPs ranged from approximately 10,000 to 160,000, depending on the location of the index case herd, which is smaller than the approximately 214,000 reported in the current study. The larger estimates obtained from the current study are likely because, in the previous study, 16 a dairy was randomly selected in a given region throughout the state, whereas in the current study, the index herd was always a large dairy ($2000 cows) and located in the more dairy-intensive part of the state, which typically resulted in a larger Previous studies have attempted to estimate the economic impact of an introduction of FMD into the United States; however, these studies either did not predict or report the delay (Ekboir, unpublished study, 1999) 14 or assumed a much more optimistic diagnostic delay than the 21 days assumed in the current study. 17 For example, one study simulated an FMD outbreak in the United States when assuming a diagnostic delay of 6-7 days 17 and predicted a median of approximately 50 IPs and an economic cost of approximately $465 million.…”

“…16 The population in these herds is approximately 6.4 million animals, which includes approximately 660,000 beef cows, 1.8 million dairy cows, 3.0 million calves and bulls, 150,000 pigs and hogs, 600,000 sheep and lambs, and 131,000 goats and kids (National Agriculture Statistical Service, United States Department of Agriculture: 2007 Census of Agriculture).…”

The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis

“…Berentsen, Dijkhuizen, and Oskam (1992) and Mangen, Burell, and Mourits (2004) which used single-sector models to examine alternate FMD control measures in the Netherlands. Paarlberg, Lee, and Seitzinger (2002) modeled the U.S. agricultural sector with three market levels to quantify the economic impacts of a FMD outbreak in the U.S. Schoenbaum and Disney (2003) used a multi-sector model to compute welfare impacts of alternate FMD control scenarios in the U.S.…”

Diagnostic Bioterrorism Response Strategies

“…Over the last 10 years, various scenarios have been developed and used for different purposes. Modeling and bioterrorism scenarios have been used to evaluate responses to attacks with different agents causing diseases such as anthrax (Zaric et al, 2008), ), Foot and Mouth Disease (Schoenbaum et al, 2003), and Qfever (Pappas et al, 2007), as well as decision making (O'Toole et al, 2001) and Bayesian approaches for estimating bioterror attacks (Ray et al, 2011). Different scenarios and exercises have been used to improve various counter measures such as a local bioterrorism exercise (Hoffman et al, 2000), an exercise on threat assessment and quantitative risk assessment (Zilinskas et al, 2004), and an exercise training bioterrorism surveillance system (Berndt, 2003).…”