Epidemic and Economic Impacts of Delayed Detection of Foot-And-Mouth Disease: A Case Study of a Simulated Outbreak in California

Abstract

Abstract. The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a $2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.

Aboveground burial for managing catastrophic losses of livestock

“…A study of a simulated FMD outbreak in California concluded that delaying the response to a detection from 7 to 22 days increased the mean number of herds under quarantine from 680 to 6200 as well as increased mean economic impact cost from $2.3 billion to $69 billion [12].…”

Early Adaptive Immune Responses in the Respiratory Tract of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus-Infected Cattle

“…Although fatal cases usually occur in young animals, the high transmissibility and morbidity observed in adult animals infected by the FMD virus (FMDV) result in major economic losses to the livestock industry during disease outbreaks (1). The potentially devastating economic, social, and environmental consequences of the disease have been demonstrated dramatically during the last 2 decades by a number of different outbreaks of the disease reported around the world (2)(3)(4).…”

Assessment of paper interstate certificates of veterinary inspection used to support disease tracing in cattle

“…2 Rapidly detecting and tracing infected animals in a highly infectious disease outbreak are critical to minimizing the impact of the outbreak by reducing the number of animals euthanized and other costs. [15][16][17][18] By enhancing the ability to trace individual animals, the cost of managing diseases endemic to the United States could also be reduced and improve the marketability of US products in countries where traceability yields a price premium. 18 An effective animal traceability system requires common standards for collecting information, presence of legible information, and the ability to rapidly recall this information when necessary.…”