Misses in “Hot Hand” Research

Abstract

Until recently, no study has found evidence for the ''hot hand'' in the National Basketball Association. Thus, many researchers have claimed that the hot hand and momentum effects are myths. This article presents simulations that demonstrate how the primary methods for estimating the hot hand effect understate the effect and have a low chance of detecting significance and that the infrequency of the hot hand contributes to the understated estimates and the inability of tests to detect significance. These results suggest that recent research showing a small hot hand effect for free throws is indicative of a much larger hot hand effect.

Psychological momentum and risky decision-making

“…To be sure, we do not intend to assert that individuals ought to avoid developing PM because doing so is entirely maladaptive or suboptimal for decision-making. To the contrary, many findings support people's belief that PM, once developed, can elevate performance beyond levels typically exhibited (e.g., Arkes, 2011Arkes, , 2013Iso-Ahola & Dotson, 2017;Iso-Ahola & Mobily, 1980;Perreault et al, 1998;Ransom & Weinberg, 1985). What we do suggest, however, is that politicians, investors, coaches, athletes, gamblers, shoppers, and academics-or anyone else experiencing PM in a given domain-ought to be mindful that PM brings with it a confidence-elicited risk tendency that may produce performance decisions that work counter to one's goal-strivings.…”

“…In this vein, research to date on PM effects has largely focused on two questions: first, what are people's naïve beliefs and expectations regarding how PM influences behavior, and second, whether PM actually exists and indeed influences performance, as is widely accepted (for comprehensive reviews of the extant PM literature see Hubbard, ; Iso‐Ahola & Dotson, ). These scholarly efforts have produced several fruitful theories that pinpoint factors that precipitate PM perceptions (e.g., Briki, Markman, Coudevylle, Sinnapah, & Hue, ; Gernigon et al, ; Hubbard, ; Iso‐Ahola & Dotson, ; Markman & Guenther, ; Perreault, Vallerand, Montgomery, & Provencher, ; Vallerand et al, ), psychological and physical consequences of developing PM (e.g., Gernigon et al, ; Iso‐Ahola & Dotson, ; Markman & Guenther, ; Taylor & Demick, ), and that have yielded evidence that the development of PM indeed predicts elevated subsequent performance, at least in some domains (e.g., Arkes, ; Iso‐Ahola & Dotson, ; Iso‐Ahola & Mobily, ; Perreault et al, ; Ransom & Weinberg, ).…”

“…PM (e.g., Gernigon et al, 2010;Iso-Ahola & Dotson, 2016;Markman & Guenther, 2007;Taylor & Demick, 1994), and that have yielded evidence that the development of PM indeed predicts elevated subsequent performance, at least in some domains 1 (e.g., Arkes, 2011Arkes, , 2013Iso-Ahola & Dotson, 2017;Iso-Ahola & Mobily, 1980;Perreault et al, 1998;Ransom & Weinberg, 1985).…”

How should “hot” players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness

“…It was hypothesised that another reason for the unobservability of the hot hand was due to the rare occurrence of the phenomenon (Miyoshi, 2000). Arkes (2013) tested this conjecture with a large sample and concluded that the inability to detect the hot hand is more likely due to the fact that it occurs very rarely than its non-existence. His simulations showed that it takes at least a 10% frequency of the hot hand to detect a significant effect.…”

Reference Points, Prospect Theory and Momentum on the PGA Tour

“…Arkes (2015) found evidence of the cold hand in golf across rounds, but no evidence of a hot hand. However, Stone (2012) and Arkes (2013) both show that typical tests of the hot/cold hand have low power and may be biased toward null effects. It is important to note that the bias to infer the hot hand prematurely (Falk and Konold (1997); a.k.a.…”