Psychological momentum and risky decision-making

Abstract

Psychological momentum (PM) is construed as an extra‐individual phenomenon capable of elevating performance in a variety of achievement contexts including athletics, politics, and investing. Although generally perceived as a performance‐enhancing phenomenon, the present study tested whether one counterintuitive downside to developing PM is that it enhances risky decision‐making—by way of eliciting heightened confidence—within these contexts. Findings from one study support this prediction. Participants induced to experience PM prior to a card‐matching task with financial implications (chances to win $100 gift cards) made riskier gameplay decisions than those experiencing less PM. Critically, PM ratings were positively associated with task confidence, which in turn, mediated the relationship between PM and risk‐taking. Directions for future research and implications for decision‐making in sport, political, clinical, and investment domains are discussed.

Gaining or Losing Team Ball Possession: The Dynamics of Momentum Perception and Strategic Choice in Football Coaches

“…This supports Attali’s (2013) result that revealed that coaches were less likely to make a change when they perceived success. However, our result runs counter to findings of other investigations (Attali, 2013; Guenther and Kokotajlo, 2017) showing that positive PM entailed behavioral changes in actors. However, this difference supports the view that the experience of PM can be sensitive to the type of task involvement (e.g., actor vs. spectator) (Briki et al., 2014a).…”

“…Although people’s lay theories can affect PM and subsequent judgments, the literature of PM reveals a lack of studies seeking to examine how PM may influence judgment and reasoning, such as strategic choice (i.e., “stick” vs. “switch” choices) (Guenther and Kokotajlo, 2017). To date, only the study of Guenther and Kokotajlo (2017) has investigated whether and how PM could affect actors’ choices, and this study took place in the context of finance. The results of their study showed that positive PM increased switch choices through increased sense of self-confidence.…”

Psychological momentum: The phenomenology of goal pursuit

“…In the case of PM, it seems likely that individuals use their immediate hedonic reactions to mental simulations as input into their judgments and predictions about the future. In some cases, the mental simulations that underlie PM perceptions may lead to accurate predictions, such as when a team that appears to be coming from behind ultimately does gain the upper hand and prevails, whereas in other cases, mental simulations of this type may lead to exaggerated judgments, such as when the perception that one is “on a roll” in a game of chance leads to overly optimistic betting and risky decision making (for a recent example, see Guenther & Kokotajlo, ). In all, delineating antecedents to the PM experience and examining their downstream consequences for human perception, cognition, emotion, and behavior would appear to be important avenues for future research.…”

A cross-lagged panel analysis of second language achievement and enjoyment

“…This finding was not in line with our expectations but does suggest that L2 achievement is an antecedent of FLE. This result may be explained by contingent path theory ( Raynor and Roeder, 1987 ) and the theory of psychological momentum ( Guenther and Kokotajlo, 2017 ; Hubbard, 2017 ), which posits that desirable learning task outcomes enhance motivation to pursue learning and undertake further tasks. This is supported by the self-determination theory, where one study found that self-perceived competence enhances students’ motivation during subsequent L2 learning ( Alamer, 2022 ).…”