Reference Points, Prospect Theory and Momentum on the PGA Tour

Stone, Daniel; Arkes, Jeremy

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2636044

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2019

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“…A considerable literature on hot hands has arisen in the three decades since GVT (1985) brought the concept from sports folklore into the realm of academic research. 4 The sports covered include basketball (GVT, 1985;Paul and Weinback,2005;Arkes, 2013;Daks et al, 2018), golf (Gilden and Wilson, 1995b;Clark, 2003a;McFall et al, 2009;Livingston, 2012;Stone and Arkes, 2016), volleyball (Raab et al, 2012), baseball (Albright, 1993;Albert, 2008;Green & Zwiebel, 2018), bowling (Dorsey-Palmeteer & Smith, 2004), NFL (Paul et al, 2012), darts (Otting et al, 2018) and even horseshoe pitching (Smith, 2003). 5 The results have been mixed.…”

Section: Hot Handsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Wrathall

Falvey

Rajaguru

2019

Australian Journal of Management

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We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market. JEL Classification: C53, D81, D84

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