Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Abstract

We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market. JEL Classification: C53, D81, D84

How rational is gambling?

“…Research on hot hands covers a broad range of different sports, like basketball (see Daks et al., 2018; Arkes, 2013), football (see Salaga & Brown, 2018), golf (see Stone & Arkes, 2016; Livingston, 2012), darts (see Ötting et al., 2020), baseball (see Green & Zwiebel, 2018), and horse racing (see Wrathall et al., 2020). Most of the older evidence suggests that hot hands do not exist (see e.g., Gilovich et al., 1985), so that beliefs in hot hands are wrong.…”