Migration in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Drivers, Consequences, and Governance

Siddiqui, Tasneem; Bhagat, R. B.; Banerjee, Soumyadeep; Liu, Chengfang; Sijapati, Bandita; Memon, Rashid; Thinley, Pema; Ito, Michiko; Nemat, Orzala Ashraf; Arif, Ghulam Muhammad

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_15

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…This is further compounded by other structural factors (road access, irrigation infrastructure, small land holdings), as well as changing rainfall patterns affecting crop yields (Mishra 2014;Joshi 2018). With climate change, these factors are expected to become more significant for the already vulnerable mountain communities (Banerjee et al 2014;IPCC 2014b;Tiwari and Joshi 2015;Siddiqui et al 2019;Maharjan et al 2020Maharjan et al , 2021. Our quantitative analysis highlighted the multicausal nature of migration (Black, Stephen, et al 2011), which was further supported by the interviews.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

“…Poverty and inequality, lack of infrastructure, and a strong dependence on rainfed agriculture aggravate conditions for the communities (Bhagat 2018;NMSHE 2018). Socioeconomic factors together with degrading environmental conditions have resulted in increased pressure to find alternative livelihoods, amplifying migration from rural areas (Arlikatti et al 2018;Naudiyal et al 2019;Siddiqui et al 2019;Upadhyay et al 2021). The resulting outmigration has changed the size and demographic composition of the mountain communities: Young men leave in search of employment, while the elderly and women remain (Goodrich et al 2017;Joshi 2018;Lama et al 2021;Tiwari and Joshi 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate, Agriculture, and Migration: Exploring the Vulnerability and Outmigration Nexus in the Indian Himalayan Region

Biella

Hoffmann

Upadhyay

2022

Mountain Research and Development

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate, Agriculture, and Migration: Exploring the Vulnerability and Outmigration Nexus in the Indian Himalayan Region

Biella

Hoffmann

Upadhyay

2022

Mountain Research and Development

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“…The incidence of migration is relatively low in zones severely affected by climate change (see chapter 3). It appears that a mix of environmental and non-environmental factors generate migratory streams of working -age populations in order to reduce households' vulnerabilities and improve the well-being (Siddiqui et al 2019). Table 4.4 presents data on the direction of move by province and agroecological zone.…”

Section: Incidence Of Economic Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation

Arif¹,

Riaz²,

Nadeem³

et al. 2019

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The Population Council's Population, Environmental Risk, and Climate Change (PERCC) initiative is a multidisciplinary effort to understand how environmental changes affect demographic trends and the impact they have on vulnerable populations. The Council is bringing together its experience in social and behavioral science research, diverse perspectives, data, methodologies, and tools to better understand the many facets of adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. This evidence will inform programs, policies and technologies that ensure the grave threat of climate change does not roll-back decades of progress in reducing poverty and improving lives around the world. ABOUT THIS MONOGRAPH Climate, Population, and Vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring Evidence of Linkages for Adaption uses diverse data sources to initiate an interdisciplinary conversation on the interlinkages of climate change and demography through contributions from national experts in meteorology, migration, and agriculture. The aim is to provide a regionally nuanced perspective of the climatic changes to which the population is exposed; the key demographic and socioeconomic trends that have a bearing on vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation; internal migration; and the expected combined impact of these dynamics on the country's food and economic mainstay-agriculture.

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“…what has been found by other studies on the future scenario: Bokhari et al (2018) highlight a decrease in precipitation by up to 50 per cent in the winter season (December to March); and Shroder et al (2016) highlight a decrease in monsoon precipitation by 20 per cent in Pakistan and southeastern Afghanistan.These changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern is likely to increase the water stress in the KRB(Siddiqui et al 2019). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Implications of Future Climate Change And Extremes On Health, Agriculture, Water, And Cryosphere Sectors In The Kabul River Basin

Khatiwada

Pradhananga

Nepal

2021

Preprint

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Increasing temperature and variability in precipitation are affecting different sectors in the Himalayan region. This study aims to quantify the future scenario and related extreme indices in the Kabul River Basin of the western Himalaya using high-resolution climate data sets. We selected the representative global climate model simulations for RCP4.5 and 8.5, based on their abilities to represent the historical climate cycle. By using a three-step methodology, we selected four models for RCP4.5 and four for RCP8.5. The analysis shows that, overall, precipitation will increase by 4 and 12 per cent for RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the end of the 21st century, and the seasonal analysis shows decreasing pattern during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. However, temperatures will increase consistently by 3OC to 5OC in RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The extreme indices were calculated based on the selected models. The extremes, like consecutive summer days, warm days, and heatwave will increase, whereas the frost days, cold nights, and cold waves will decrease towards the end of this century. Notably, more warm days and heatwaves than the baseline period are projected in future scenarios. Besides, the extremes are not homogenous in time and space. We also discussed the potential implications of these climatic extremes as related to human health, agricultural productivity, water availability, and the cryosphere. We strongly urge prompt climate actions in order to increase the adaptive capacity against these extreme changes and to build a resilient livelihood in the Kabul River Basin.

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Migration in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Drivers, Consequences, and Governance

Cited by 15 publications

References 41 publications

Climate, Agriculture, and Migration: Exploring the Vulnerability and Outmigration Nexus in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate, Agriculture, and Migration: Exploring the Vulnerability and Outmigration Nexus in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation

Potential Implications of Future Climate Change And Extremes On Health, Agriculture, Water, And Cryosphere Sectors In The Kabul River Basin

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