Climate, Agriculture, and Migration: Exploring the Vulnerability and Outmigration Nexus in the Indian Himalayan Region

Biella, Riccardo; Hoffmann, Roman; Upadhyay, Himani

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-21-00058.1

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 45 publications

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“…Mueller et al (2014) conclude that heat stress consistently increases the long-term migration of men in Pakistan, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Another explanation for this study could be that in the reference period, people tended to move from the colder, more inaccessible mountainous areas in Nepal and India to warmer, more fertile and urban areas (Biella et al, 2022;Maharjan et al, 2020b). This would also explain why in migration is projected in most areas in the RFR projection of SSP3-RCP70, since temperatures rise quicker and built-up land grows faster compared to SSP1-RCP26 and SSP2-RCP45, possibly making areas more attractive based on the obtained historical relations.…”

Section: Interpretation Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Futures of conflict risk, migration and equity implications

de Bruin

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Integrated socioeconomic and environmental scenarios have matured over the past decades in terms of scientific methodology and policy relevance. Contrary to these advances, less progress has been made on scenarios of conflict, migration, and equity implications in the context of environmental and socioeconomic change. On the one hand, this is not surprising due to the complex, irregular and ethical dimensions involved which are hard to quantify. On the other hand, these societal dynamics can alter the effectiveness of sustainable development strategies, underlining the importance to better understand their possible future trajectories. The main objective of this thesis is to explore the possibilities to project futures of conflict, migration, and equity implications by using various methods (Machine Learning, literature-informed vulnerability overlays and expert elicitation), to advance the field of scenario studies.

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Section: Interpretation Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%