Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation

Arif, G. M.; Riaz, Muhammad; Nadeem, Faisal; Khattak, Mohammad Jamal Khan; Sathar, Zeba A.; Khalil, Muhammad; Sadiq, Maqsood; Hussain, Sabahat; Khan, Kiren

doi:10.31899/pgy10.1022

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Recent years have seen a number of challenges for Pakistan. Five million people were afflicted by drought-like conditions that started in late 2018 and lasted into 2019, with 2.1 million of them in need of humanitarian aid [157,158]. Depending on the nature, both floods and earthquakes create terrible harm in Pakistan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

Hussain

Zhang

Moawwez

et al. 2023

Water

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Natural hazards are dynamic and unpredictable events that are a continuous threat to global socio-economic development. Humans’ reactions to these catastrophes are influenced by their proximity to the hazards and their ability to anticipate, resist, cope with, and recover from their consequences. Due to climatic changes, the risk of multiple natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Pakistan. There is a pressing need to understand the spatial discrepancies of natural hazards due to climate change and identifying the regions that require special measures to increase resilience, achieve adaptation, and sustainable development goals. This paper synthesizes the related literature to understand spatial variations of natural hazards due to climate changes across Pakistan. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Landslide Catalog (NASA-GLC), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) are utilized to analyze spatial discrepancies and vulnerabilities to natural hazards. This study unveils that Pakistan’s current risk analysis and management strategies seem to be obsolete compared to global trends. Because of spatial variations of hazards, most research work on hazard risk assessments and risk management focuses on a single hazard, neglecting the co-occurrence impact of different natural hazards. Very limited studies are included in comprehensive multi-hazard risk strategies. Therefore, in Pakistan, risk management would require integrated multi-hazard risk assessment approaches to detect, analyze, measure, and evaluate various natural hazards, their effects, and interconnections. Moreover, the Pakistan governmental institutes dealing with natural hazards should focus on pre-disaster mitigation and resilience techniques instead of investing only in post-disaster relief activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

Hussain

Zhang

Moawwez

et al. 2023

Water

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“…Furthermore, global warming will increase net agricultural water requirements, putting additional stress on water resources. A 6% decrease in rainfall increases net irrigation water requirements by 29% in the country (Arif et al, 2019). According to the World Bank's 2020-2021 projection, the water shortfall will expand to 32% by 2025, resulting in a food shortage of over 70 million tons.…”

Section: Implications For Water Management and Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent path: isolating land use and climate change impact on river runoff

Mahmood,

Khan,

Babur

et al. 2024

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Water resource management requires a thorough examination of how land use and climate change affect streamflow; however, the potential impacts of land-use changes are frequently ignored. Therefore, the principal goal of this study is to isolate the effects of anticipated climate and land-use changes on streamflow at the Indus River, Besham, Pakistan, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The multimodal ensemble (MME) of 11 general circulation models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585 was computed using the Taylor skill score (TSS) and rating metric (RM). Future land use was predicted using the cellular automata artificial neural network (CA-ANN). The impacts of climate change and land-use change were assessed on streamflow under various SSPs and land-use scenarios. To calibrate and validate the SWAT model, the historical record (1991–2013) was divided into the following two parts: calibration (1991–2006) and validation (2007–2013). The SWAT model performed well in simulating streamflow with NSE, R2, and RSR values during the calibration and validation phases, which are 0.77, 0.79, and 0.48 and 0.76, 0.78, and 0.49, respectively. The results show that climate change (97.47%) has a greater effect on river runoff than land-use change (2.53%). Moreover, the impact of SSP585 (5.84%–19.42%) is higher than that of SSP245 (1.58%–4%). The computed impacts of climate and land-use changes are recommended to be incorporated into water policies to bring sustainability to the water environment.

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“…The inter‐annual to seasonal changes in mean and extreme precipitation events over Pakistan are also evident in literature (Asmat & Athar, 2017 ; Hartmann & Buchanan, 2014 ; M. S. Hussain & Lee, 2014 ; Sheikh et al., 2015 ). The heavy rainfall event of the 2010 Pakistan flood was strongly connected to largescale atmospheric Rossby wave forcing (Lau & Kim, 2012 ) which has affected around 20 million people in the region and displaced approximately 11 million in numbers (Arif et al., 2019 ). The persistent increase in extreme weather and climate events, associated largescale atmospheric patterns, and societal impacts in Pakistan are critical to analyze for mitigation and adaptation measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Exposure Changes to Mean and Extreme Climate Events Over Pakistan and Associated Mechanisms

Saleem,

Zhang,

Hina

et al. 2023

GeoHealth

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The increasing prevalence of warmer trends and climate extremes exacerbate the population's exposure to urban settlements. This work investigated population exposure changes to mean and extreme climate events in different Agro‐Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Pakistan and associated mechanisms (1979−2020). Spatiotemporal trends in mean and extreme temperatures revealed significant warming mainly over northern, northeastern, and southern AEZs. In contrast, mean‐to‐extreme precipitation changes showed non‐uniform patterns with a significant increase in the northeast AEZs. Population exposure to mean (extreme) temperature and precipitation events increased two‐fold during 2000–2020. The AEZs in urban settlements (i.e., Indus Delta, Northern Irrigated Plain, and Barani/Rainfall) show a maximum exposure to extreme temperatures of about 70–100 × 106 (person‐days) in the reference period (1979−1999), which increases to 140–200 × 106 person‐days in the recent period (2000−2020). In addition, the highest exposure to extreme precipitation days also increases to 40–200 × 106 person‐days during 2000–2020 than 1979−1999 (20–100 × 106) person‐days. Relative changes in exposure are large (60%–90%) for the AEZs across northeast Pakistan, justifying the spatial population patterns over these zones. Overall, the observed changes in exposure are primarily attributed to the climate effect (50%) over most AEZs except Northern Irrigated Plain for R10 and R20 events, where the interaction effect takes the lead. The population exposure rapidly increased over major AEZs of Pakistan, which could be more vulnerable to extreme events due to rapid urbanization and population growth in the near future.

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Climate, population, and vulnerability in Pakistan: Exploring evidence of linkages for adaptation

Cited by 10 publications

References 20 publications

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

Divergent path: isolating land use and climate change impact on river runoff

Population Exposure Changes to Mean and Extreme Climate Events Over Pakistan and Associated Mechanisms

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