Megatrend methodology to identify development opportunities

Güemes‐Castorena, David

doi:10.1109/picmet.2009.5261829

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

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Section: Break Points Identificationmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…An emerging topic is a phenomenon or nascent process, which has been present for a short time and has the potential to become a robust trend in the future, to the extent that it consolidates (Gü emes-Castorena, 2009). Table IV shows the environments in which are possible to identify emerging topics.…”

Section: Emerging Topics Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The break points involves an event or incident, whose occurrence causes a sudden fracture or break in a trend previously identified (Gü emes-Castorena, 2009). It can also be a turning point in trends (Gü emes-Castorena, 2009). Table V describes the characteristics and causes of the break points, and also how to make the break points to lead the business opportunities.…”

Section: Break Points Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What is desirable? (Gü emes-Castorena, 2009). The technique of Glenn (2008) and Gordon (2009) for the generation of the most probable scenarios is a highly recommended tool for step 5.…”

Section: Step 5: Scenarios Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO)

2013

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Purpose -The objective of this study is to provide a support tool for managers to identify future business opportunities.Design/methodology/approach -The proposed model consists of eight-steps. For the first step the authors propose two studies: trends analysis and change drivers' identification; these help to identify the most relevant trends in areas that may affect the business activities. All this information is put into a Delphi process with the help of experts in order to find the common denominator of where the future is going; afterwards, with this information, the authors can build events and scenarios for the business opportunities. Then, a diagnostic of the study area, sector or organization through the dynamic diagnostic methods is performed. Findings -Once the opportunities have been identified, a strategic analysis that allows decision making to prioritize and define the activities or projects that may be achievable in the future is done, and the result of the process is a portfolio of business opportunities projects fully defined and ready to be planned with a roadmap.Originality/value -The proposed model allows the managers to consistently organize their development processes targeted to real business opportunities.

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Section: Break Points Identificationmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Emerging Topics Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Break Points Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What is desirable? (Gü emes-Castorena, 2009). The technique of Glenn (2008) and Gordon (2009) for the generation of the most probable scenarios is a highly recommended tool for step 5.…”

Section: Step 5: Scenarios Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO)

2013

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“…Since the mid-twentieth century, the velocity at which the evolutions occur at the cultural, economic, technologic and social level has become more apparent (Guemes-Castorena, 2009). These changes influence the environment that is the frame of reference on which all design decisions are based and therefore this context should be explored as a first step in a design process (Hekkert and Van Dijck, 2011).…”

Section: Tools In the Early Design Phasementioning

confidence: 99%

The ‘Responsibility’ Factor in Imagining the Future of Education in China

Vos

Xin

Marez

et al. 2019

Proc. Int. Conf. Eng. Des.

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Design and creativity have been a considerable force for improving life conditions. A lot of effort has been invested in explaining the design process and creativity mainly through the design thinking methodology, but design accountability and responsible actions in the design process are, yet, to be fully explored. The concept of design ethics is now increasingly scrutinized on both the level of business organization and of the individual designer. A 4-day design workshop that involved creativity techniques provided the base to explore responsibility in the fuzzy front end of the design process. The future of education in 2030 was defined as the workshop's theme and fifty-six students from China were asked to create detailed alternative scenarios. A number of imagination exercises, implementation of technological innovations and macro-environment evolutions employed in the workshop are discussed. The aim was to incite moral and responsible actions among students less familiar with creative educational contexts of student-led discovery and collaborative learning. This paper reflects on the use of creativity methods to stimulate anticipation in (non)design students.

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