Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO)

Abstract

Purpose -The objective of this study is to provide a support tool for managers to identify future business opportunities.Design/methodology/approach -The proposed model consists of eight-steps. For the first step the authors propose two studies: trends analysis and change drivers' identification; these help to identify the most relevant trends in areas that may affect the business activities. All this information is put into a Delphi process with the help of experts in order to find the common denominator of where the future is going; afterwards, with this information, the authors can build events and scenarios for the business opportunities. Then, a diagnostic of the study area, sector or organization through the dynamic diagnostic methods is performed. Findings -Once the opportunities have been identified, a strategic analysis that allows decision making to prioritize and define the activities or projects that may be achievable in the future is done, and the result of the process is a portfolio of business opportunities projects fully defined and ready to be planned with a roadmap.Originality/value -The proposed model allows the managers to consistently organize their development processes targeted to real business opportunities.

Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods

“…Van der Meulen et al discuss the fact that integrating learning through an interactive process provides more value and impact [van der Meulen et al, 2003]. Most of the adaptive foresight literature is focused on exploring new business opportunities in highly uncertain environments [Heger, Rohrbeck, 2012;Rohrbeck et al, 2015;Castorena et al, 2013]. This is not surprising because the number of "traditional industries undergoing radical change due to emerging technologies is unprecedented" [Groen, Walsh, 2013, p. 187].…”

Avaliação Tecnológica: Uma Proposta Metodológica

“…Castorena et al (2013) desenvolveram um modelo de oito passos no qual, primeiramente, propõem a análise de tendências e identificação dos direcionadores de mudança que ajudam a identificar as tendências mais relevantes em áreas que podem afetar as atividades de negócios. Todas essas informações são colocadas em um processo Delphi com a ajuda de especialistas.…”

“…Segundo esses autores, poucas delas apresentam oportunidades de mudanças radicais, mas cada uma delas apresenta oportunidades para melhorias no escopo, na eficácia, na eficiência e nos custos. A AT tem como finalidade a antecipação, identificação e avaliação de possíveis impactos que a inserção de uma nova tecnologia pode causar em uma organização (Castorena, Rivera, & González, 2013).…”

Railway Industry Roadmap in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil

“…For the roadmap development, it considered the rail sector described in CNAE-30 (Classificação Nacional de Atividades Econômicas / National Classification of Economic Activities in Brazil)], mentioned above [17]; 2. Seven drivers were defined, as recommended by different TRM methodologies [3,15,16,23]:…”