Mechanistic Modeling of Marsh Seedling Establishment Provides a Positive Outlook for Coastal Wetland Restoration Under Global Climate Change

Hu, Zhan; Borsje, Bastiaan Wijnand; Belzen, Jim van; Willemsen, Pim Wilhelmus Johannes Maria; Heng, Wang; Peng, Yisheng; Lin, Yu‐Ching; Dominicis, Michela De; Wolf, Judith; Temmerman, Stijn; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

doi:10.1029/2021gl095596

Cited by 51 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…no increasing or decreasing trends in the long-term average or variability of the stressor), environments constantly vary on shorter timescales. Without such environmental variability no transitions can occur [ 7 , 8 , 14 ]. To date, the role of the period (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Belzen

Fivash

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Belzen

Fivash

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…Once being eroded or buried, the seagrass can no longer provide protection to the coast, which is not accounted for at the moment. The green nourishment proposed in this study could be combined with other nature-based solutions, such as beach nourishment, salt marsh construction (i.e., the Marconi project at Delfzijl Netherlands; Hu et al, 2015Hu et al, , 2021Baptist et al, 2021) and mangrove development (Gijsman et al, 2021), to mitigate the coastal erosion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Green Nourishment: An Innovative Nature-Based Solution for Coastal Erosion

et al. 2022

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Coastal erosion poses an urgent threat to life and property in low-lying regions. Sand nourishment is increasingly used as a nature-based solution but requires significant natural resources and replenishment over time. In this study, a novel form of nourishment is explored that combines shoreface nourishment and seagrass restoration to mitigate coastal erosion (i.e., green nourishment). Using the coastal morphodynamic model Xbeach, the impact of seagrass planting on wave energy dissipation, sediment erosion and transport, and morphological evolution of a cross-shore profile was studied for mild wave conditions and an intense storm. Model results indicate that a seagrass meadow enhances the wave energy dissipation provided by a shoreface nourishment, and suggests that it may be particularly effective in sediment transport mitigation when implemented in a sheltered nearshore area. The shoreface nourishment reduced the wave height on the seagrass meadow, and reduced the rate of seagrass destruction by deposition or erosion above the grass height after the storm event. Green nourishment also reduced beach foreshore erosion caused by a simulated storm event. An alternative, more cost-effective planting technique using seagrass seeds was explored, which showed similar coastal erosion protection benefits for seagrass transplants. This modeling study found that green nourishment is potentially an effective nature-based solution for coastal erosion and flooding on sandy coasts, and future studies are recommended to evaluate its morphological, ecological and flood risk reduction benefits in the field.

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“…Yet, saltmarshes are declining globally (Gedan et al, 2009;Silliman et al, 2009;Shepard et al, 2011) under pressures from sea level rise and human impacts (Craft et al, 2008;Lin et al, 2012;Kirwan and Megonigal, 2013). In reversing this, sufficient knowledge on saltmarsh plant establishment is required to provide sciencebased strategies to (re)create new marshes (Temmerman et al, 2013;Bouma et al, 2014;Hu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By driving rapid recruitment over extensive area, seedling establishment can be particularly important for many restoration desired sites, where tidal flats lack source vegetation or often are disconnected from existing vegetation by retreating marsh cliffs (Bouma et al, 2016;Zhu et al, 2020b). This render saltmarsh seedling establishment a key process determining restoration potentials (Hu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Occurring in the dynamic intertidal environments, saltmarsh seedling establishment is a consequence of interactions between ecological, physical, and biogeochemical processes (Friess et al, 2012;Balke et al, 2014;Hu et al, 2015b). Based on experiments and modelling, studies on saltmarsh establishment strongly suggest that successful seedling establishment requires for a sequence of lowdisturbance periods (referred to as windows of opportunity, WoO) following seedling dispersal (Balke et al, 2014;Hu et al, 2015b;Hu et al, 2021). During these critical periods, seedlings are expectants in gaining stability by rooting growth to resist subsequent erosion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drainage-Improved Sediment Strength Enhances Saltmarsh Seedling Establishment Chance

Cao

Zhu

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Identify critical factors driving seedling establishment is essential for saltmarsh restoration. Recent studies highlight drainage can facilitate seedling establishment for different saltmarsh species, yet the underling mechanism remains largely unknown. By a manipulative mesocosm experiment with contrasting sediment drainage treatments, we investigated the impacts of drainage on Spartina anglica seedlings survival, growth and stability. Surprisingly, neither S. anglica seedling survival nor seedling growth were observed to be directly promoted by well drained treatment. However, the critical erosion depth (maximum erosion tolerance) of S. anglica seedlings was found to positively correlate with seedling root length. Measurements on the sediment properties revealed that drainage increased the critical shear strength of sediments with lower water content and higher dry bulk density. These findings indicate that, by dewatering, drainage aids to sediment consolidation and critical shear strength, and thereby facilitate seedling establishment in tempering sediment dynamics. The latter is supported by a field study, in which we found that the magnitude of the sediment dynamics on two tidal flats were positively related to water content of sediment. Overall, present study suggests that drainage could be a key factor that determines seedling stability during the critical windows of opportunity for seedling establishment, and that it could be integrated into future designs for saltmarsh restoration to enhance establishment success.

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Mechanistic Modeling of Marsh Seedling Establishment Provides a Positive Outlook for Coastal Wetland Restoration Under Global Climate Change

Abstract: while also being prominently affected by global climate change. Global-scale projections suggest that a relative sea-level rise (RSLR) alone can lead to 20%-90% loss of the current marsh areas by 2100 (Kirwan,

Cited by 51 publications

References 72 publications

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Green Nourishment: An Innovative Nature-Based Solution for Coastal Erosion

Drainage-Improved Sediment Strength Enhances Saltmarsh Seedling Establishment Chance

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