Mathematical temporal prediction of CD4+ lymphocytes in HIV/AIDS patients in antiretroviral treatment

Abstract

Background: CD4+ lymphocyte count, measured through flow cytometry, is necessary for the following up of HIV-infected patients in antiretroviral therapy, however, the access to this test is limited in low-income countries. The objective of this investigation is to develop a mathematical methodology that allows to temporarily predict CD4+ values greater than 500, between 200 and 500, lesser than 200 for each patient. Methods: values of the populations of CD4+ lymphocytes greater than 500, between 200 and 500 and lesser than 200 cells and leukocytes in 250 patients were taken in sequential dates and combinations of the ranges. Temporal series of 12 prototypical patients were analyzed in search of predictive patterns, and then, these patterns were applied in the remaining patients in a blind study, finding the probability of success of the methodology for each range and its combinations, as well as sensitivity and specificity values. Results: five patterns with predictive percentages greater than 99% were found for the distinct conditions of the methodology, with values of sensitivity and specificity of 99%. Conclusions: through a predictive theoretical simplification a temporal self-organization was established for the measurements of leukocytes and CD4+ lymphocytes, which could be useful to improve the surveillance and survival of patients.