Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation

Mathews, Brian P.; Diamantopoulos, Adamantios

doi:10.1016/0167-8116(86)90038-8

Cited by 76 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…A few of the earlier studies on forecast adjustment using actual case study data are Mathews and Diamantopoulos (1986, 1990, 1992, 1994, Diamantopoulos and Mathews (1989) and Blattberg and Hoch (1990). In general, these authors conclude that forecast adjustments lead to more accurate forecasts on average.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…In Franses and Legerstee (2009) the parameters in model (2) are estimated using SKU-sales data and it is reported that β is close to 0.4, on average, and there is a large variety of potential estimated values. Fildes et al (2009) and Mathews and Diamantopoulos (1986) show that often the differences between expert forecasts and model forecasts are positive. Fildes et al…”

Section: What Do Experts Do With Model Forecasts?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Do Experts Incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and Should They?

2011

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We propose a new and innovative two-level Hierarchical Bayes model to answer these questions. We apply our proposed methodology to a large data set of forecasts and realizations of SKU-level sales data from a pharmaceutical company. We find that expert forecasts can depend on model forecasts in a variety of ways. Average sales levels, sales volatility, and the forecast horizon influence this Terms of use: Documents independence. We also demonstrate that theoretical implications of expert behavior on forecast accuracy are reflected in the empirical data.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: What Do Experts Do With Model Forecasts?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Experts Incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and Should They?

2011

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“…The research on qualitative forecasting by expert judgement and the quantitative forecasting method was explored. The study of human intervention in the sales forecast of 281 products showed that the forecast accuracy after intervention increased (Mathews and Diamantopoulos, 1986). In addition, the forecast including intervention proved to be better than the forecast without intervention (Goh and Law, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining Qualitative and Time Series Forecasting to Increase the Forecasting Accuracy for Instant Noodle Sales in Thailand

Khamphinit

Ongkunaruk

2016

KLS

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“…There are studies that suggest that such managerial intervention leads to improved forecasts, see Mathews and Diamantopoulos (1986) and Diamantopoulos and Mathews (1989), but on the other hand Fildes and Goodwin (2007) suggest that perhaps FSS forecasts are adjusted too often, consequently leading to a decrease in accuracy. A recent extensive study of Fildes et al (2009) concludes that sales forecasters tend to be biased and that their over-optimism (that is, their forecasts exceed FSS forecasts) 2 leads to less accuracy.…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Sales Forecasters

Bruijn

Franses

2012

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract A Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales forecasters (managers) can take the FSS output as their input, but they can also fully ignore the FSS outcomes. We propose a methodology that allows to evaluate the forecast accuracy of these managers, relative to the FSS, while taking aboard latent variation across managers' behavior. We show that the results, here for a large Germany-based pharmaceutical company, can in fact be used to manage the sales forecasters by giving clear-cut recommendations for improvement. Terms of use: Documents in

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Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation

Cited by 76 publications

References 12 publications

Do Experts Incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and Should They?

Do Experts Incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and Should They?

Combining Qualitative and Time Series Forecasting to Increase the Forecasting Accuracy for Instant Noodle Sales in Thailand

Managing Sales Forecasters

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