Abstract:The study of the influence of variable production conditions and the work in logistics milk harvesting systems on the value indicators of their functioning has been carried out. A method that enables to solve the task of coordinating the content of work with variable production conditions is proposed. It has been established that there are seven variants of the content of work in logistics milk harvesting systems, each of which has its own specifics. Computer experiments were carried out using the developed si… Show more
“…Some of the research results that are presented in the works [13,16,24] relate to the risk assessment of projects and their project environment. The quantitative risk assessment is the basis for determining the effectiveness of these projects [25][26][27][28].…”
The proposed approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of investor’s profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol involves the implementation of eight stages. It systematically takes into account the stochastic nature of many factors that determine the amount of investments in the project, as well as the stochastic nature of the market value of raw materials. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate assessment of the level of risk of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, taking into account the requirements of investors. Based on the use of the developed application software, stochastic models of profit of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol and patterns of changes in their risk for the Western region of Ukraine are obtained. It is established that with the growth of the minimum expected profit of investors of projects from 10 to 70$/ton, the probability of its receipt varies from 0.89 to 0.34. According to a reasonable scale, the level of risk of making a profit by investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol from wheat varies from acceptable to high.
“…Some of the research results that are presented in the works [13,16,24] relate to the risk assessment of projects and their project environment. The quantitative risk assessment is the basis for determining the effectiveness of these projects [25][26][27][28].…”
The proposed approach to quantitative assessment of the risk of investor’s profit in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol involves the implementation of eight stages. It systematically takes into account the stochastic nature of many factors that determine the amount of investments in the project, as well as the stochastic nature of the market value of raw materials. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate assessment of the level of risk of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol, taking into account the requirements of investors. Based on the use of the developed application software, stochastic models of profit of investors in projects for the production of raw materials for wheat bioethanol and patterns of changes in their risk for the Western region of Ukraine are obtained. It is established that with the growth of the minimum expected profit of investors of projects from 10 to 70$/ton, the probability of its receipt varies from 0.89 to 0.34. According to a reasonable scale, the level of risk of making a profit by investors in projects for the production of raw materials for bioethanol from wheat varies from acceptable to high.
The research presents results of the analysis of scientific and practical conditions of planning of the needs for resources, required for the implementation of the projects of agricultural production. The work substantiates the improvement of the method of forecasting the demand of natural resources, required for fodder production. That method expects the performance of four stages, which are based on production experiments and require computer modeling. The presented method, contrary to the existing ones, considers changeable natural-climatic, subject, organization, and scale constituents of the project environment of the agricultural production projects. Using the developed computer model for forecasting of the natural resource demand for fodder production under conditions of the agricultural servicing cooperative “Pokrova” of Zabolottsi community in Brody district of Lviv region, the work has studied impact of natural-climatic, organization and scale constituents of production conditions on the variation of the natural resource demand. It is confirmed that the mathematical expectation of the area of the required field for the growing of fodder crops with a proportional change of the milking herd population is made according to polynomial dependencies of the second order. The correlation coefficient of the obtained dependencies is 0.85…0.99. It confirms a strong correlation relation between the mathematical expectation of the area of the field, necessary for the growing of fodder crops, and the structure of the milking herd population. The increase of the milking herd population results in the growth of the mathematical expectation and insufficient increase of the mean-square deviation of the area of the field, required for growing of fodder crops.
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