Computer model of resource demand planning for dairy farms

Abstract

The research presents results of the analysis of scientific and practical conditions of planning of the needs for resources, required for the implementation of the projects of agricultural production. The work substantiates the improvement of the method of forecasting the demand of natural resources, required for fodder production. That method expects the performance of four stages, which are based on production experiments and require computer modeling. The presented method, contrary to the existing ones, considers changeable natural-climatic, subject, organization, and scale constituents of the project environment of the agricultural production projects. Using the developed computer model for forecasting of the natural resource demand for fodder production under conditions of the agricultural servicing cooperative “Pokrova” of Zabolottsi community in Brody district of Lviv region, the work has studied impact of natural-climatic, organization and scale constituents of production conditions on the variation of the natural resource demand. It is confirmed that the mathematical expectation of the area of the required field for the growing of fodder crops with a proportional change of the milking herd population is made according to polynomial dependencies of the second order. The correlation coefficient of the obtained dependencies is 0.85…0.99. It confirms a strong correlation relation between the mathematical expectation of the area of the field, necessary for the growing of fodder crops, and the structure of the milking herd population. The increase of the milking herd population results in the growth of the mathematical expectation and insufficient increase of the mean-square deviation of the area of the field, required for growing of fodder crops.