MAGA Republicans’ Views of American Democracy and Society and Support for Political Violence: Findings from a Nationwide Population-Representative Survey

Abstract

Background: Identification of groups that may be at high risk for political violence can support effective prevention and intervention measures. This study’s objectives are to determine whether so-called Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, are 1) a distinct subset of Republican party affiliates and 2) more likely than others to express support for and willingness to engage in political violence. Design, Setting, Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022 of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. The analytic sample includes 7,255 respondents for whom party affiliation, 2020 voting information, and opinion on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election were available. Main Measures and Outcomes: MAGA Republicans are defined as Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and agreed strongly or very strongly with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Outcomes are weighted, population-representative proportions of MAGA Republicans and 3 comparison groups—strong Republicans, other Republicans, and non-Republicans— endorsing an array of beliefs about American democracy and society and expressing support for and willingness to engage in political violence. Results: The analytic sample (n= 7,255) included 1,128 (15.0%) MAGA Republicans, 640 (8.3%) strong Republicans, 1,571 (21.3%) other Republicans, and 3,916 (55.3%) non-Republicans. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to agree strongly or very strongly that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy” (MAGA Republicans, 31.0%, 95% CI 28.0%, 34.1%; strong Republicans, 17.8%, 95% CI 14.5%, 21.7%; other Republicans, 17.0%, 95% CI 14.8%, 19.2%; non-Republicans, 15.2%, 95% CI 13.9%, 16.6%) and that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States” (MAGA Republicans, 30.3%, 95% CI 27.2%, 33.4%; strong Republicans, 7.5%, 95% CI 5.1%, 9.9%; other Republicans, 10.8%, 95% CI 9.0%, 12.6%; non-Republicans, 11.2%, 95% CI 10.0%, 12.3%). They were far more likely to agree that that “in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants,” and to endorse the central elements of the Q-Anon delusion complex. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to consider violence usually or always justified to advance 1 or more of 17 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 58.2%, 95% CI 55.0%, 61.4%; strong Republicans, 38.3%, 95% CI 34.2%, 42.4%; other Republicans, 31.5%, 95% CI 28.9%, 34.0%; non-Republicans, 25.1%, 95% CI 23.6%, 26.7%). They were more likely to report that, in a future situation where they considered political violence to be justified, they would be armed (MAGA Republicans, 18.6%, 95% CI 15.9%, 21.2%; strong Republicans, 9.5%, 95% CI 6.6%, 12.4%; other Republicans, 8.1%, 95% CI 6.5%, 9.7%; non-Republicans, 4.7%, 95% CI 3.9%, 5.5%). They were not more willing than others to engage personally in political violence of several types (to damage property, threaten or intimidate a person, injure a person, or kill a person) or against 9 categories of people defined by occupational or social characteristics, and they were not more willing than others to threaten or kill someone with a gun in a situation where they believed political violence was justified.Conclusions and Relevance: As defined, MAGA Republicans are a minority of Republicans and are distinct from other Republicans and non-Republicans on many measures. They are more likely to hold extreme and racist beliefs, to endorse political violence, to see such violence as likely to occur, and to predict that they will be armed under circumstances in which they consider political violence to be justified. They are not more willing to engage personally in political violence.

Firearm Ownership and Support for Political Violence in the United States

“…They were more likely (by 6.9 percentage points, after adjustment) to justify violence to achieve at least 1 of 17 political objectives. This difference is only moderate, in our view; the same survey found much larger differences associated with sociodemographic characteristics, political party affiliation, and political ideology . And with 1 exception, a statistically significant but very small (1.1 percentage point) increase in the likelihood that they would shoot someone, owners reported no greater overall willingness to engage in political violence.…”

Expectations of and Perceived Need for Civil War in the United States: Findings from a 2023 Nationally Representative Survey

“…It is a particularly concerning finding of this 2023 survey that expectations of and a perceived need for civil war are higher among subsets of the population that are also more likely than others to view political violence as justified and frequently more willing than others to engage in such violence themselves. 7,[11][12][13][14] The long list of these subsets includes Republicans, MAGA Republicans, extreme conservatives, persons in strong or moderate agreement with racist beliefs or statements of the potential need for violence to effect social change, persons who strongly approve of specified extreme right-wing political organizations and movements, owners of assault-type rifles, firearm owners who purchased firearms in 2020 or later, and firearm owners who carry firearms in public all or nearly all the time.…”

“…We assessed associations between responses to those items and survey items from Wave 1 or Wave 2 that covered 5 broad domains: beliefs about race and ethnicity and American society, beliefs about the potential need for violence to effect social change in the US, political party affiliation and political ideology, firearm ownership and use, and approval of eight extreme right-wing political organizations and movements: the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, QAnon, the Christian Nationalist movement, the white supremacy movement, the militia movement, and the Boogaloo movement. Additional information on the construction of these measures has been published previously 7,[11][12][13][14] and is provided in the Supplement, as is the full text of all questions reported on here, including sources for questions from surveys by other investigators.…”

“…In this study we assess expectations of and support for civil war in the US among the 9385 participants in Wave 2 of the cohort survey, including variation in those measures with participants' sociopolitical characteristics, firearm ownership and use, stated willingness to commit political violence, and other key attributes, based largely on their responses to items presented in Wave 1. 7,[11][12][13][14] Better understanding the factors that influence support for largescale civil conflict may play an important role in developing effective prevention measures.…”

Firearm Ownership and Support for Political Violence in the United States: Findings from a Nationally Representative Survey

“…This same survey has found much larger differences on all these measures associated with political party affiliation and political ideology, with Republicans and conservatives generally reporting greater support for political violence than Democrats and liberals. 26,27 The details point to heterogeneity among firearm owners. 5,14 Their greater support for violence to "preserve an American way of life based on Western European traditions" and "to stop illegal immigration" suggests a white supremacist, xenophobic view of the world, but their greater support for violence "to stop police violence" seems more consistent with firearm ownership by political progressives or by members of populations that have been disproportionately subjected to police violence.…”