Expectations of and Perceived Need for Civil War in the United States: Findings from a 2023 Nationally Representative Survey

Abstract

Background: Surveys have found concerningly high levels of agreement that the United States will experience civil war in the next few years. This study assesses variation in expectation of and perceived need for civil war with respondent sociopolitical characteristics, beliefs, firearm ownership, and personal willingness to engage in political violence. Methods: Findings are from Wave 2 of a nationally representative annual cohort survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 18-June 8, 2023. All respondents to 2022’s Wave 1 who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.7%, 95% CI 49.4%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. Approximately 1 respondent in 18 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly or very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States.” About 1 respondent in 25 (3.8%, 95% CI 3.2%, 4.4%), and nearly 40% (38.4%, 95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) of those who strongly or very strongly agreed that civil war was coming, also agreed strongly or very strongly that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.” Expectation of and perceived need for civil war were higher among subsets of respondents who in Wave 1 were more willing than others to commit political violence: Republicans, MAGA Republicans, extreme conservatives, persons in strong or moderate agreement with racist beliefs or statements of the potential need for violence to effect social change, persons who strongly approved of specified extreme right-wing political organizations and movements, firearm owners who purchased firearms in 2020 or later, and firearm owners who carried firearms in public all or nearly all the time. Conclusions: In 2023, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon but were higher among subsets of the population that had previously been associated with greater willingness to commit violence to advance political objectives. These findings can help guide efforts to prevent large scale political violence.