Looking back at South Africa: Analyzing and reviewing the 2010 FIFA world cup

Soccer jersey sponsors and the world cup

“…Paul and Mitra (2008) also find that higher ranked FIFA teams have higher probabilities to win, using data from WC 1994-2006. Binder and Findlay (2012 show that the Elo-ratings outperform the FIFA rankings in forecasting the results of all matches not ending in a draw in the four WC during the period 1994-2006 (see also Lasek et al (2013) for a similar result and Stefani & Pollard (2007) who also compare the FIFA-and Elo-rating systems; for a systematic approach to evaluate the accuracy of alternative forecasting methods, see Fenton & Constantinou (2010;2011)). Hvattum and Arntzen (2010) compare Elo-based predictions to six benchmark prediction methods, among which two are based on bookmaker odds, and found that Elo outperforms four benchmarks, but not the bookmakers' predictions.…”

“…with the weighting parameter k dependent on the relative importance of the match (ranging from 20 for friendly matches to 60 for the WC final). To take into account that teams perform better at home, the host team factor is set at +100 Elo-points and sometimes teams from the same continent are given +50 points (Deutsch 2011;Leitner et al, 2010). In this paper, these special adjustments are not made, so it is assumed that all countries in a WC play on neutral ground.…”

Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification

“…Dyte and Clarke (2000) treat the goals scored by the teams as independent Poisson variables to simulate the 1998 FIFA World Cup. Deutsch (2011) wants to judge the impact of the draw in the 2010 World Cup, as well as to look back and identify surprises, disappointments, and upsets. Groll et al (2015) fit and examine two models to forecast the 2014 FIFA World Cup.…”

On Elo based prediction models for the FIFA Worldcup 2018

“…Since the FIFA World Cup 2018 is a more complex tournament, involving for instance effects such as group draws, e.g. see (Deutsch, 2011), and dependences of the different matches, we use Monte-Carlo simulations to forecast the whole course of the tournament. For a more detailed summary on statistical modeling of major international football events we refer to (Groll et al, 2015) and references therein.…”