Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951–2010

Cinco, Thelma A.; Guzman, Rosalina G. de; Hilario, Flaviana D.; Wilson, David

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.03.025

Cited by 78 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Indeed, around the second half of the boreal summer monsoonal period from August to mid-October, the seasonal dry climate allows biomass burning throughout the maritime continent (MC), particularly in warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases (e.g, Nichol, 1998;van der Werf et al, 2004;Field and Shen, 2008;Langner and Siegert, 2009;Field et al, 2009;van der Kaars et al, 2010;Reid et al, 2012Reid et al, , 2013. Climatologically, there exists both anecdotal evidence and some station data suggesting an increase in the number of no-rain days in the Philippines (Cruz et al, 2013), yet perhaps an increase in intense events (Cinco et al, 2014). Perhaps such a behavior is a result of the effect of increasing aerosol emissions on clouds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

Reid¹,

et al. 2015

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Abstract. In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies program (7-SEAS), a 2-week, late September 2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Niña year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performedPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. J. S. Reid et al.: Temporal variability in South Chinas Sea aerosol propertiesby Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol life cycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN < 150 cm −3 , non-sea-salt PM 2.5 < 1 µg m −3 ). However, elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm −3 and non-sea-salt PM 2.5 10-25 µg m −3 ). These cases corresponded with two different mechanisms of convection suppression: lower free-tropospheric dry-air intrusion from the Indian Ocean, and large-scale TC-induced subsidence. Veering vertical wind shear also resulted in aerosol transport into this region being mainly in the marine boundary layer (MBL), although lower free troposphere transport was possible on the western sides of Sumatra and Borneo. At the hourly time scale, particle concentrations were observed to be modulated by integer factors through convection and associated cold pools. Geostationary satellite observations suggest that convection often takes the form of squall lines, which are bowed up to 500 km across the monsoonal flow and 50 km wide. These squall lines, initiated by cold pools from large thunderstorms and likely sustained by a veering vertical wind shear and aforementioned mid-troposphere dr...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

Reid¹,

et al. 2015

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“…At national or regional scale, the changes of precipitation extremes were also extensively studied, and significant trends in precipitation extremes were detected in the United States, Australia, Goswami et al, 2006;Fu et al, 2010;Boccolari and Malmusi, 2013;Cino et al, 2014;Limsakul and Singhruck, 2016;Singh and Goyal, 2016). In China, significant trends in precipitation extremes have also been detected with apparent regional differences (Zhai et al, 2005;Qian and Qin, 2008;Xu et al, 2011;You et al, 2011;Deng et al, 2014;Song et al, 2015;Sun et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China

Gao

2016

Atmospheric Research

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The statistical methods based on extreme value theory have been traditionally used in meteorology and hydrology for a long time. Due to climate change and variability, the hypothesis of stationarity in meteorological or hydrological time series was usually not satisfied. In this paper, a nonstationary extreme value analysis was conducted for annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) at 631 meteorological stations over China for the period 1951-2013. Stationarity of all 631 AMP time series was firstly tested using KPSS test method, and only 48 AMP time series showed non-stationarity at 5% significance level. The trends of these 48 nonstationary AMP time series were further tested using M-K test method. There were 25 nonstationary AMP time series mainly distributed in southern and western China showing significant positive trend at 5% level. Another 5 nonstationary AMP time series with significant negative trends were near northern urban agglomeration, Sichuan Basin, and central China. For these nonstationary AMP time series with significant positive or negative trends, the location parameter in generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was assumed to be time-varying, and the trends were successfully characterized by the nonstationary GEV models. For the remaining 18 nonstationary AMP time series mainly in the eastern portion of China, no significant trend was detected. The correlation analysis showed that only 5 nonstationary AMP time series were significantly correlated with one or two of the four climate indices EASMI, WPI, SOI, and PDO. Then, the location and scale parameters in the GEV distribution were modeled as functions of the significantly correlated climate indices. The modeling results in this study showed that the nonstationary GEV distributions performed better than their stationary equivalents. Finally, 20-year and 50-year return levels of precipitation extremes at all 631 stations were estimated using the best fitting distribution for the year 1961 and 2013, respectively.

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“…Higher increase in rainfall were observed on the eastern portion. Historical changes in rainfall has been observed in the country based on weather station records (Cinco et al 2014). However, although increase in trends was observed for intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events for most weather stations in the country, a small portion of these station shows statistically significant trend (Cinco et al 2014).…”

Section: Projected Changes In Climate Changes In Total Monthly Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the average, increase in monthly minimum temperature during the month of August to November is more than 2°C; with the highest projected temperature (7.4°C) observed during the month of August. An increase more than 0.5°C in minimum temperature was observed in the country at the start of the 21st Unauthenticated Download Date | 5/9/18 7:00 PM century while the highest increase in minimum temperature (1°C) in the country was observed during the 1997-1998 period (Cinco et al 2014). …”

Section: Changes In Average Monthly Minimum Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The highest increase in temperature (7.2°C) was projected on the western portion of the country during the month of August. According to Cinco et al (2014), mean temperature in the country consistently rises since the 1978 with observed anomalies reaching 0.1°C to 1.0°C in the 1990's. However, the range is projected to increase with monthly mean temperature in the country reaching more than 1.5°C during the month of May to December in the future.…”

Section: Changes In Average Monthly Mean Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion

2017

Quaestiones Geographicae

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SAlvAcion A.r., 2017. Mapping spatio-temporal changes in climatic suitability of corn in the Philippines under future climate condition. Quaestiones Geographiceae 36(1), Bogucki Wydownictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 105-120, 11 figs, 5 tables.AbStrAct: This study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

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Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951–2010

Cited by 78 publications

References 24 publications

Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

Nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in China

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

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