Long-term prediction of climate change impact on the productivity of grain crops in Ukraine using satellite data

Abstract

Aim. To analyze and predict the climate change impact on the crop structure, yield and gross collections of grain crops in short-term (2025), mid-term (2050) and long-term perspective. Methods. Analysis of long-term series of climatic parameters based on satellite data, climatic modeling, statistical analysis of crop yield and gross collection of grain crops. Results. The positive effect of historical and current climate change on grain crop yields in Ukraine is demonstrated. It is predicted that the preservation of this pattern and the implementation of an integrated system of measures for adapting agroecosystems to warming will promote further increase in the grain crop yield and thus its gross collection. Conclusions. According to the analysis of satellite data and climatic models, further climate warming is predicted and its positive impact on grain crop productivity is forecasted. In case of developing and implementing the measures to adapt agroecosystems to climate change, the grain yield in Ukraine may increase by 25 % in 2025 compared with the current period (2015) and by 29–30 % in 2050; the gross collection of grain crops will reach 75.0 million tons (in 2025) and 79.0–80.0 million tons (in 2050). On condition of effi cient material and technical, scientifi c and informational support, further development of technical means, the reproduction of soil fertility and the improvement of irrigation technologies in the long-term perspective (by 2100), the gross grain collection may reach 92–95 million tons.

Trends in the Environmental Conditions, Climate Change and Human Health in the Southern Region of Ukraine

“…Data about the impact of disturbances such as drought, fire, flood, and frost [25,36] justified that the NDVI has a strong correlation with maximum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity. The positive NDVI trend was evident in most parts of Ukraine [37,38].…”

Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine

“…However, little is known about the impacts of changing climate on crop yields and agricultural production in Ukraine. And the validities of the small number of studies that examined climate impacts on crop yields in Ukraine are constrained by either the aggregate crop yields data they use (Tarariko et al 2017) or the relatively short time interval and crop coverage of the data (Müller et al 2016).…”

Dynamics of climate changes and its effect on the performance of cereals according to satellite data

“…There is the intensifi cation of the mineralization processes and the washing-out of organic matter, nitrogen, calcium, and other chemical elements from the soil, which has a negative effect on the physical-chemical properties and anti-erosion resistance of turf-podzolic soils. As a result, there are higher risks of erosion degradation and dust storms occurring on ever larger scales in the nearest future (Tarariko et al, 2017).…”

“…In the territory of Ukraine, there are also additional internal factors promoting climate warming and the processes of desertifi cation of the farming lands. First of all, it is related to the high ploughness of the agrolandscapes (up to 80-90 %), their rather low woodiness, high risk of moisture loss, and expansion of erosive degradation of soils under the decrease of soilprotective crops in the structure of arable soils and the increase in the volume of heavy precipitation (Tarariko et al, 2017).…”