We produced the first spatially explicit, cross-border, digital map of long-term (160 years) land use in the Carpathian Ecoregion, the Hungarian part of the Pannonian plains and the historical region of Moravia in the Czech Republic. We mapped land use in a regular 2 × 2 km point grid. Our dataset comprises of 91,310 points covering 365,240 km 2 in seven countries (Czechia,
Ïðîàíàë³çîâàíî îñîáëèâîñò³ ïðîñòîðîâî-÷àñîâèõ âàð³àö³é ³íäåêñ³â êîíòèíåí-òàëüíîñò³ Gorczynsky òà JohansonRingleb, à òàêîae àìïë³òóäè òà ôàçè ñåçîííèõ âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè íà òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè â óìîâàõ ãëîáàëüíîãî ïîòåïë³ííÿ. Äëÿ àíàë³çó âèêîðèñòàíî äîâãîñòðîêîâ³ åìï³ðè÷í³ äàí³ (ñåðåäíüîì³ñÿ÷íà òåìïåðàòóðà), ùî îòðèìàí³ íà ìåðåae³ ìåòåîðîëîã³÷íèõ ñòàíö³é Óêðà¿íè, ÿê³ ð³âíî-ì³ðíî ðîçòàøîâàí³ íà ð³âíèíí³é òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè (ç âèñîòîþ íàä ð³âíåì ìîðÿ íå á³ëüø ÿê 350 ì) çà ïåð³îä 19002017 ðð. Çì³íè àìïë³òóäè òà ôàçè ñåçîííèõ âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè äîñë³äaeåíî çà äîïîìîãîþ àíàë³çó Ôóðº. Âñòàíîâëåíî, ùî íà ôîí³ çàãàëüíîãî çíèaeåííÿ çíà÷åíü ³íäåêñ³â êîíòèíåíòàëüíîñò³ êë³ìàòó íà òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè çà ïåð³îä 19002017 ðð. (÷åðåç çíà÷íå ïîòåïë³ííÿ â õîëîäíèé ïåð³îä ðîêó ), ñïîñòåð³ãàºòüñÿ òåíäåíö³ÿ ¿õ çðîñòàííÿ ( K G íà 6 % çà 100 ðîê³â ³ K JR íà 4 % çà 100 ðîê³â) çà ïåð³îä 19702017 ðð. (÷åðåç ï³äâèùåííÿ òåìïåðàòóðè â òåïëèé ñåçîí, îñîáëèâî â òðàâí³ñåðïí³). Àìïë³òóäà òåìïåðàòóðè â XX ñò. ³ íà ïî÷àòêó XXI ñò. çìåíøèëàñÿ íà 0,5 ± 0,2 °Ñ çà 100 ðîê³â, à çà ïåð³îä 1970 2017ðð. ³íòåíñèâíî ï³äâèùèëàñÿ íà 1,1 ± 0,6 °Ñ çà 100 ðîê³â. ²ñíóº äåÿêà òåíäåí-ö³ÿ äî çì³ùåííÿ ôàçè ñåçîííèõ êîëèâàíü òåìïåðàòóðè, ï³ä âïëèâîì çì³í êë³ìàòó. Òàê, öÿ ôàçà çì³ñòèëàñÿ íà 1,9 ± 1,1 äí³ ó ï³çí³ø³ ñåçîíè â ö³ëîìó äëÿ òåðèòî-𳿠Óêðà¿íè.Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: çì³íà êë³ìàòó, êë³ìàò Óêðà¿íè, òåðì³÷íèé ³íäåêñ êîíòèíåí-òàëüíîñò³, àìïë³òóäà ³ ôàçà ñåçîííèõ âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè.
Aim. To analyze and predict the climate change impact on the crop structure, yield and gross collections of grain crops in short-term (2025), mid-term (2050) and long-term perspective. Methods. Analysis of long-term series of climatic parameters based on satellite data, climatic modeling, statistical analysis of crop yield and gross collection of grain crops. Results. The positive effect of historical and current climate change on grain crop yields in Ukraine is demonstrated. It is predicted that the preservation of this pattern and the implementation of an integrated system of measures for adapting agroecosystems to warming will promote further increase in the grain crop yield and thus its gross collection. Conclusions. According to the analysis of satellite data and climatic models, further climate warming is predicted and its positive impact on grain crop productivity is forecasted. In case of developing and implementing the measures to adapt agroecosystems to climate change, the grain yield in Ukraine may increase by 25 % in 2025 compared with the current period (2015) and by 29–30 % in 2050; the gross collection of grain crops will reach 75.0 million tons (in 2025) and 79.0–80.0 million tons (in 2050). On condition of effi cient material and technical, scientifi c and informational support, further development of technical means, the reproduction of soil fertility and the improvement of irrigation technologies in the long-term perspective (by 2100), the gross grain collection may reach 92–95 million tons.
The ecological state of the environment, climatic conditions with pronounced seasonality, variability, anomaly summer heat and regional manifestations of climate change, have a certain negative impact onwell-being, health and comfort of life of the population. To assess climatic comfort of a person, a bioclimatic index (equivalent-effective temperature) was used, which allows to evaluate thermal sensation of a person under a certain combination of meteorological parameters. In this study we used daily observation data (surface temperature, air humidity and wind velocity) at 34 meteorological stations in Ukraine for the period 1990—2020. Analysis and ranging of data, which characterize the thermal bioclimatic conditions, were done. It was found that the weather conditions with apparent temperature of very cold—cold—cool—slightly cool compose about 268 ± 9 (73 %) days per year. Thus, the population of Ukraine experience conditions of physiologically cold stress during the prevalent time of the year. Weather conditions that fall into gradations very cold –(30 ... 23) and cold –(23 ... 12) represent 6 ± 5 (~2 %) and 42 ± 17 (~12 %) days per year respectively. They can consequently cause extreme cold and strong cold stress and have a tendency towards decreasing repeatability. The largest number of days on average across the country have such gradations as slightly cool 0 ... 12 and cool –(12 ... 0), 113 ± 10 (31 %) and 107 ± 8 (29 %) days per year respectively. Slightly cool weather conditions are typical for the warm period of the year, mainly autumn and spring, and partially winter, while cool –(12 ... 0) is more prevalent in winter, autumn and spring seasons. Comfortable and subcomfortable thermal conditions for human with apparent temperature of slightly warm and warm compose on average 96 ± 8 (~26 %) days per year. Comfortable thermal conditions for human on the territory of Ukraine represent about 47 ± 13 (13 %) days per year and are typical for the warm period from April to October, with maximal values in summer: June 10 ± 3, July 17 ± 4 and August 15 ± 4 days per month. A number of days with subcomfortable thermal conditions for human on the territory of Ukraine compose also 48 ± 3 (13 %) days per year. Moreover, for May—September it has almost an equal number of days per month from 7 to 12 with minimal values in April, October and November, about 1—2 days. There is a tendency to increase in the number of days with comfortable thermal conditions for human in summer by 0.2—0.3 days per month for the period 1991—2020. The trend is 0.83 days per year (on average 25—30 days were added each year) for the period 1991—2020. Thus, comfortable climatic conditions for the local population in Ukraine increase during the warm season. However, the frequency of hot apparent temperatures (23 ... 30) has increased, especially during summer period, which can subsequently cause strong and extreme heat stress for humans. In particular years, it was recorded up to 5—19 days per year. For that reason, the climatic conditions of Ukraine have a certain potentially comfortable climatic resource(in June—August): Western region has a minimal climatic resource (23—40 %); Northern region has a sufficient climatic resource (36—53 %); Central region has an optimal climatic resource (40—60 %); Southern region has an optimal climatic resource (40—67 %).
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