Heterogenous climate impacts on crop yields: evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

Ukraine ranks among the largest global producers and exporters of a variety of agricultural commodities. Despite its importance, there is limited research on the effect of climate change on the future of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. We investigate how weather affects the yields of Ukraine’s five major crops: winter wheat, spring barley, sunflower, soybean, and corn. Using panel data on village-level surveyed crop yields and fine-scale weather data from 2004–2020, we estimate flexible statistical yield models to characterize the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields. A simple linear model of the effect of average temperature and precipitation on yields suggests warming is beneficial for all crops in Ukraine. However, a more flexible model of the temperature-yield relationship implies that the yields of two cold-season crops, winter wheat and spring barley, respond negatively to temperatures above 29 °C and 30 °C, respectively. We find no negative effects of high temperatures for the three warm-season crops. We conclude that both average temperature and exposure to high temperatures affect Ukrainian yields.