Long-term current prediction in the central Great Barrier Reef

Burrage, Derek; Black, Kerry P.; Ness, K. F.

doi:10.1016/0278-4343(94)90074-4

Cited by 27 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…During austral winter, or the "dry season" on the GBR, the prevailing southeasterly trade winds dominate, limiting cross-shelf surface flow. Furthermore, seasonal strengthening of the southward-flowing EAC in early spring (September-October), when the opposing trade winds begin to subside [26][27][28], results in strong intrusions of clear, oligotrophic EAC waters through the Palm and Magnetic Passages in the central GBR [29], with southward flow along the mid-shelf channel (Figure 3(b)). At the southern end of the GBR, the Capricorn Eddy forms most strongly during spring when the EAC strengthens, with resultant intrusions of clear EAC waters into the Capricorn and Curtis Channels [15], further enhancing separation of the inner and outer shelf regions (Figure 3(b)).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, water clarity is generally greatest during early spring ( Figure 7(b)), when the EAC strengthens and the southeast trade winds relax. This springtime acceleration of the EAC is known to lead to intrusions in the central GBR [27,29] and further to the south, the Capricorn Eddy forms most strongly and regularly in spring, with associated intrusions up the Capricorn Channel [15,28]. These intrusions onto the mid-shelf would somewhat separate the water bodies of the inner-shelf from the outer shelf waters.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Satellite-Derived Photic Depth on the Great Barrier Reef: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Water Clarity

et al. 2012

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Detecting changes to the transparency of the water column is critical for understanding the responses of marine organisms, such as corals, to light availability. Long-term patterns in water transparency determine geographical and depth distributions, while acute reductions cause short-term stress, potentially mortality and may increase the organisms' vulnerability to other environmental stressors. Here, we investigated the optimal, operational algorithm for light attenuation through the water column across the scale of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We implemented and tested a quasi-analytical algorithm to determine the photic depth in GBR waters and matched regional Secchi depth (Z SD ) data to MODIS-Aqua (2002 and SeaWiFS (1997SeaWiFS ( -2010 satellite data. The results of the in situ Z SD /satellite data matchup showed a simple bias offset between the in situ and satellite retrievals. Using a Type II linear regression of log-transformed satellite and in situ data, we estimated Z SD and implemented the validated Z SD algorithm to generate a decadal satellite time series (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) values during the austral summer, most likely due to river runoff and increased vertical mixing, and a decline in water clarity between 2008-2012, reflecting a prevailing La Niña weather pattern. The decline in water clarity was most pronounced in the inshore area, where a significant decrease in mean inner shelf Z SD of 2.1 m (from 8.3 m to 6.2 m) occurred over the decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis determined the dominance of Mode 1 (51.3%), with the greatest variation in water clarity along the mid-shelf, reflecting the strong influence of oceanic intrusions on the spatio-temporal patterns of water clarity. The newly developed photic depth product has many potential applications for the GBR from water quality monitoring to analyses of ecosystem responses to changes in water clarity.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite-Derived Photic Depth on the Great Barrier Reef: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Water Clarity

et al. 2012

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“…Eastern boundary upwelling systems are wind driven, whereas the EAC, which flanks the GBR, flows in the opposite direction (southward) to the dominant trade winds (from the southeast). Shelf-edge upwelling on the central GBR is a result of seasonal strengthening of the poleward-flowing current when the opposing trade winds subside in the austral spring and summer (Andrews and Furnas 1986;Burrage et al 1994). A faster-flowing EAC will produce a significant rise in thermocline level over the continental slope, through the effects of baroclinic adjustment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upwelling linked to warm summers and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef

Berkelmans

Weeks

Steinberga

2010

Limnology & Oceanography

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We investigate a range of indices to quantify upwelling on the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, so that environmental and biological relationships associated with upwelling in this area can be explored. We show that ''Upwelling days'' (the number of days of upwelling) and diurnal variation in subsurface temperature (maximum-minimum, 20-m depth) are satisfactory metrics to describe the duration and intensity of upwelling events, respectively. We use these to examine key characteristics of shelf-break upwelling in the central GBR. Our results show, somewhat paradoxically, that although upwelling involves cold water being brought near to the surface, it is linked to positive thermal anomalies on the GBR, both locally and regionally. Summers (December to February) with strongest upwelling occurred during the GBR-wide bleaching events of 1997-1998 and 2001-2002. Upwelling in the GBR is enhanced during doldrums conditions that were a feature of these summers. During these conditions, the poleward-flowing East Australian Current flows faster, lifting the thermocline closer to the surface, spilling more sub-thermocline waters onto the shelf. Doldrums conditions also result in intense local heating, stratification of the water column, and, when severe, coral bleaching. Upwelling intrusions are spatially restricted (central GBR), generally remain subsurface, and are often intermittent, allowing GBR-wide bleaching to occur despite conditions resulting in enhanced upwelling. Intense upwelling events precede anomalous seasonal temperature maxima by up to 2 months and bleaching by 1-3 wk, leading to the prospect of using upwelling activity as a seasonal forecasting index of unusually warm summers and widespread bleaching.

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“…A preliminary empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to compress the spatial variability into a few eigen-modes, so that GA could be applied to the time series of the dominant principal components (PC). Burrage et al proposed an optimal multi linear regression model for the tidal current forecasting [19].…”

Section: Previous Research For Tidal Currents Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Proposed Algorithms for Tidal in-Stream Speed Model

Aly

El-Hawary

2013

AJEE

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Abstract:In this paper we propose four models for tidal current speed and direction magnitude forecasting model. The first model is a Fourier series model based on the least squares method (FLSM), the second model is an artificial neural network (ANN), the third model is a hybrid of FLSM and ANN and the fourth model is a hybrid of ANN and FLSM for monthly forecasting of tidal current speed. These proposed models are ranked in order depending on their performance. These models are validated by using another set of data (tidal current direction). The proposed hybrid model of FLSM and ANN is highly accurate and outperforms. This study was done using data collected from the Bay of Fundy in 2008.

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Long-term current prediction in the central Great Barrier Reef

Cited by 27 publications

References 14 publications

Satellite-Derived Photic Depth on the Great Barrier Reef: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Water Clarity

Satellite-Derived Photic Depth on the Great Barrier Reef: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Water Clarity

Upwelling linked to warm summers and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef

A Proposed Algorithms for Tidal in-Stream Speed Model

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