Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

Widening the Scope of Scenario Planning in Small Communities: a Case Study Use of an Alternative Method

“…Although this alternative method can represent the visions of community members in an organized format, it does not directly support social learning between community members as is called for in scenario planning (Wollenberg et al 2000, Evans et al 2006, Biggs et al 2007). We did not focus workshop discussions on the visions with other groups to perhaps encourage learning, understanding, empathy, and communication between groups.…”

“…Forecasting starts from the present to outline plausible and possible futures and backcasting, or visioning, starts from an ideal future point and works backward to the present (Robinson 1990, van Notten et al 2003, Evans et al 2006, Kok et al 2006. The strength of forecasting is that it gives community members an opportunity to visualize how their community might be in a set Ecology and Society 16(1): 11 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art11/ time period considering different changes, whereas the strength of backcasting is that it gives community members the opportunity to identify how they would like to see the future, and from this to plan pathways for achieving it (Biggs et al 2007). We will combine forecasting and backcasting in Ukupseni as a way for the community to explore how it could be in the future, as influenced by different changes, and to represent how different community groups wish to see the future when the representation of those wishes might have otherwise been silenced.…”

“…Because of the fact that scenario planning calls for participation in a community-wide discussion of knowledge, perspectives, and intuition to reach consensus (Evans et al 2006, Biggs et al 2007, Fabricius et al 2007, cultural norms that allowed neither women and men nor elders and youth in Ukupseni to meet and discuss together in public would prevent its use. Furthermore, when brainstorming with community and Dobbo Yala leaders, even if collaboration was attempted in a community-wide workshop as prescribed in preexisting methods, they were certain that most participants would not be able to honestly present their knowledge, perspectives, and needs as would be desired.…”

Impacts of Nomad Sedentarization on Social and Ecological Systems at Multiple Scales in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China

“…In the past decade, the scale concept has been increasingly introduced into the field of natural resource management (Lovell et al 2002;Adger et al 2005;Berkes 2006;Borgström et al 2006;Young 2006;Biggs et al 2007;Olsson et al 2007;Papaik et al 2008). Large-scale social and ecological systems consist of subsystems at smaller scales, and changes that occur at a given focal scale may have unexpected impacts at larger and smaller scales (Pelosi et al 2010).…”

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future

“…This type of learning stresses the skills, knowledge, and visions of those at risk and aims to support leadership from even the most vulnerable. A combination of local-and global-scale scenarios that link storylines developed at several organizational levels (Biggs et al, 2007), personalizing narratives to create a sense of ownership (Frittaion et al, 2010), and providing safe and repeated learning spaces (Kesby, 2005) can enhance learning.…”