Widening the Scope of Scenario Planning in Small Communities: a Case Study Use of an Alternative Method

Rawluk, Andrea; Godber, Annelise

doi:10.5751/es-03852-160111

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…This was particularly important at the local level where women and youth, normally the most marginalised members of the community, were given a more equal footing to express a diverse range of worldviews as reflected in their scenarios (Rawluk and Godber, 2011). And although not a goal of the scenario process, many of the local participants found the techniques and results potentially useful for planning their community's future activities:…”

Section: Participation In Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Participants were divided into men, women and youths, groupings that would allow people to honestly present their knowledge, perspectives, and needs, without being influenced by community power relations (Wollenberg et al, 2000;Rawluk and Godber, 2011). Using the two most important but uncertain drivers, four possible scenarios were developed by each group.…”

Section: Participatory Scenario Workhop At Local Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Mistry

Tschirhart

Verwer³

et al. 2014

Environmental Science & Policy

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AcknowledgementsWe would like to thank all the participants of the North Rupununi and Guyana scenario workshops and Dominique Laffly for his advice in carrying out statistical analysis. Thank you to the anonymous reviewers for their comments. This research has been funded by the Environment Programme, Management of Natural Resources, DG Research and Innovation, European Commission 7 th Framework. 2 AbstractScenarios help build a shared understanding of potential futures and allow us to engage with how interventions or activities may impact on people and the environment. There are many scenario sets that have been developed at the global and regional level, but to a lesser extent at the national and local levels. Yet fewer studies have explicitly linked imagined futures at different socialecological scales. In this paper, we discuss how scenario analysis was used with indigenous communities and national level stakeholders in Guyana, South America, to explore context specific futures in relation to linked socialecological systems. These futures were then analysed against published regional (Amazonian) and international scenarios using a qualitative coding approach and supported by quantitative factorial analysis. This allowed us to develop a matrix of multi-scalar scenarios, showing how scenarios at all scales interact. From this, we were able to identify virtuous and vicious cycles amongst the different scales where developments produced feedbacks to make situations worse, better or counteract change at other levels. Our results show that there is considerable mismatch between the different scales of analysis, with the national scale playing a key role as mediator. In addition, we highlight the importance of focusing on the root causes shaping futures as well as participatory forms of scenario development in order to provide better policy and decision support, and stimulate engagement at all levels of organisation in the process of change.

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Section: Participation In Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Participatory Scenario Workhop At Local Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Mistry

Tschirhart

Verwer³

et al. 2014

Environmental Science & Policy

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show abstract

“…Sense making occurs as participants draw on and relate their own experience and stories from their world to consider the strengths and weaknesses of each scenario. Although contrasting scenarios are not unique (e.g., Carpenter et al 2005, Rawluk and Godber 2011, Low Choy et al 2012, the generation of these scenarios as directly value driven using a robust conceptual framework for values sets these apart from other participatory scenarios. Valuebased scenarios enable a transparent and conceptually robust exploration of how abstract and concrete values relate in everyday life and of alternative ways of approaching natural disaster management through a value lens.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value-based scenario planning: exploring multifaceted values in natural disaster planning and management

Rawluk¹,

Ford²,

Williams³

2018

E&S

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The multifaceted dynamics of values underpin many social-ecological challenges, but there are limited approaches for grappling with them. Participatory scenario planning can be a useful tool to explore and evaluate different approaches in natural disaster management. We developed value-based scenario planning as a general framework and process and applied it to the context of bushfire management in Victoria, Australia. From our application, three scenarios resulted: developing self-reliant people and communities; a safe society: separating people and fuel; and living with nature and bushfire. We found that values could guide the development of relatable scenarios and that value-based scenarios supported the understanding of complex relationships between abstract and concrete values and natural disaster management and planning. We found that scenarios led people to think outside of their area of comfort and fostered reflection, discussion, and consideration for how to bridge value differences. Future applications of value-based scenarios could support communication between decision-making agencies and the public in the face of uncertainty, complexity, and value conflict.

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“…A possible solution pathway is to structurally transform the UNFCCC into a facilitative "transformative boundary organisation" to harness knowledge, action, and stakeholder networks for action [21]. This approach would draw on the extensive science and practice of group decision and negotiation [81,82] and participatory adaptive capacity building and mainstreaming for climate change [83][84][85][86][87][88] to directly capture both complexity and non-state actors. These methods take different forms (e.g.…”

Section: Adaptively Transforming Unfccc Processes For Complexity Govementioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity ethics and UNFCCC practices for 1.5 °C climate change

Lyon

2018

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

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Introducing a 'complexity ethics' frame would help society mitigate or adapt to climate warming within or exceeding the Paris Agreement 1.5°C aim. A complexity ethics frame underlines existing facilitative multi-stakeholder methodologies used at subnational scales to build adaptive capacity and may be scaled-up in a transformed UNFCCC. Adopting such approaches at the international political level would permit non-state, non-Party stakeholders to more efficiently integrate their tremendous capacity for climate action into the global climate action process, leading to more substantial climate mitigation and adaptation for and over 1.5°C warming. In turn, this would help satisfy critiques regarding the democratic legitimacy of polycentric moves to include non-state actors at this level, incorporate other global initiatives and problems like the SDGs and biodiversity loss, and meet high-level calls for more cooperative responses.

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Widening the Scope of Scenario Planning in Small Communities: a Case Study Use of an Alternative Method

Cited by 12 publications

References 23 publications

Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Value-based scenario planning: exploring multifaceted values in natural disaster planning and management

Complexity ethics and UNFCCC practices for 1.5 °C climate change

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