Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage

Yang, Hang; Huang, Junlong; Liu, Dianfeng

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.102135

Cited by 90 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 78 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Carbon storages in Bishkek and Dushanbe are predicted to decrease by 0.65 Tg and 0.52 Tg under the BDS, 0.16 Tg, and 0.16 Tg under the CPS, 0.5 Tg, and 0.17 Tg under the EPS, respectively. These results are in agreement with previously reported findings that future carbon storage is prone to decline [18][19][20][21]. On the contrary, Carbon storage in Nur Sultan manifests a growing tendency under all scenarios, with a growth of 0.01 Tg, 0.11 Tg, and 0.14 Tg under the BDS, CPS, and EPS, respectively.…”

Section: Carbon Storage Changes Under Three Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Furthermore, the ratios of carbon storage loss induced by urban expansion to the total carbon storage growth in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent will be more than 1.1 under all scenarios. These results indicate an evident negative impact of future urban expansion on carbon storage, which is also reported by Jiang et al [18], Yang et al [19], He et al [20], and Zhang et al [22]. Meanwhile, carbon storage in Nur Sultan will show relatively less loss under the influence of urban expansion.…”

Section: Impacts Of Future Urban Expansion On Carbon Storagesupporting

confidence: 76%

“…The results showed that Britain and China would experience different degrees of decline in carbon storage, while the United States would experience an increase. At the regional scale, case studies were focused on Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration [18], Hubei province [19], Beijing [20], and Charlotte [21], which came to the same conclusion of carbon storage loss with future urban expansion. However, there are still two challenges to be addressed in the existing literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Chen

Yue

Xue

et al. 2021

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is growing concern about the consequences of future urban expansion on carbon storage as our planet experiences rapid urbanization. While an increasing body of literature was focused on quantifying the carbon storage impact of future urban expansion across the globe, rare attempts were made from the comparative perspective on the same scale, particularly in Central Asia. In this study, Central Asian capitals, namely Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Nur Sultan, and Tashkent, were used as cases. According to the potential impacts of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) on urban expansion, baseline development scenario (BDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) were defined. We then simulated the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion from 2019 to 2029 by using Google Earth Engine, the Future Land Use Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs model. We further explored the drivers for carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion in five capitals. The results reveal that Nur Sultan will experience carbon storage growth from 2019 to 2029 under all scenarios, while Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent will show a decreasing tendency. EPS and CPS will preserve the most carbon storage for Nur Sultan and the other four cities, respectively. The negative impact of future urban expansion on carbon storage will be evident in Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, which will be relatively inapparent in Nur Sultan. The potential drivers for carbon storage consequences of future urban expansion include agricultural development in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, desert city development in Ashkhabad, and prioritized development of the central city and green development in Nur Sultan. We suggest that future urban development strategies for five capitals should be on the basis of differentiated characteristics and drivers for the carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion.

show abstract

Section: Carbon Storage Changes Under Three Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Impacts Of Future Urban Expansion On Carbon Storagesupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Chen

Yue

Xue

et al. 2021

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the other side, carbon storage and sequestration as one of the most common regulating services were quantified and mapped by researchers (Nackoney 2003;Stringer et al 2012;Kanime et al 2013;Jiang et al 2017;Wang and Qie 2018;White, R.P. ;Yang et al 2020). Although various studies of linkage the LUCC with carbon storage and sequestration have been internationally carried out, the target area of studies is mainly focused on cities and coastal ecoregions (Zhao et al 2016), mountainous regions (Zhao et al 2018), and flood plains (Lininger et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal change detection of carbon storage and sequestration in an arid ecosystem by integrating Google Earth Engine and InVEST (the Jiroft plain, Iran)

Adelisardou

Zhao

Chow

et al. 2021

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Our study uses regional-scale maps to quantify carbon storage and sequestration from different land use types to evaluate the effects of future land use scenarios. We developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the spatiotemporal impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the provision and value of the carbon storage and sequestration during the historical period (2000–2019) and predicted scenarios (2019–2046) in the Jiroft plain, Iran. We integrated several analytic tools for our analysis, which was comprised of Google Earth Engine (GEE), Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model, Intensity Analysis (IAA), and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Our results demonstrate that: (1) agriculture and urban expansion led to a considerable decrease in carbon storage, mainly due to rapid deforestation from 2000–2019; (2) if the historical trend continues under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, it will lead to considerable social costs due to the loss of stored carbon in the plain (2,624,113 Mg) with an annual average sequestration loss of −475,547 Mg; (3) the downward carbon sequestration trend could potentially be reversed by employing the environmentally sound planning (ESP) scenario that is estimated to save 3,705,491 Mg in carbon storage, with annual average sequestration gain of + 605,830 Mg. The design scenarios provide a useful guide for policymakers and local governments to help understand the potential outcomes of the various development strategies, which will ultimately lead to more effective ecosystem management.

show abstract

“…The third is to apply it to actual decision-making according to the results of land use simulation. Generally, multi-scenario simulations are carried out by changing the restrictions [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ] to analyze the possible value of a specific target in different scenarios to support the spatial decision-making process. In addition, some scholars began to pay attention to the changes in specific land types in the city, such as built-up land density [ 25 ] and residential land growth [ 26 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Urban Expansion Based on Ecological Security Pattern—A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

Yang

Zhu

et al. 2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Disordered urban expansion has encroached on a large amount of ecological land, resulting in the steady degradation of urban ecology, which has an adverse effect on the sustainable development of the region. An ecological security pattern can effectively control urban expansion, and it is of great significance to balance urban development and ecological protection. In order to analyze the impact of ecological security patterns on urban expansion, Hangzhou was taken as an example, the CA-Markov model and FLUS model were used to simulate the urban expansion pattern in 2030 under the natural development scenario and the ecological security scenario. The results showed that (1) the ecological source area in the study area is 630.90 km2 and was mainly distributed in the western mountainous area. There are 14 ecological corridors, primarily composed of valleys and rivers. Ecological nodes are mainly distributed on the north and south sides of the main urban area. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the annual increase index (AI) of construction land decreased in the northeast and southeast directions but increased in the northwest and southwest directions, and in the northeast direction the value was always the highest. Except for the southwest direction, the average annual growth rate (AGR) of construction land in the other directions decreased. At a distance from the city center of 30 km, AI was relatively higher and was increasing, while AGR was declining. At a distance of 30–45 km, both AI and AGR were increasing, indicating that the focus of construction land was moving outwards. (3) From 2018 to 2030, under both natural development scenario and ecological security scenario, construction land would keep expanding, but the construction land area, proportion, AI, and AGR of the latter would both be smaller than the former, indicating that the ecological security pattern can effectively curb urban expansion. Because of a large amount area of ecological sources, the expansion of construction land in the southwest direction would be constrained, especially under the ecological security scenario. The methods and results of this study can provide theoretical and application references for urban planning and green development in metropolises.

show abstract

Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage

Cited by 90 publications

References 78 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Spatiotemporal change detection of carbon storage and sequestration in an arid ecosystem by integrating Google Earth Engine and InVEST (the Jiroft plain, Iran)

Simulating Urban Expansion Based on Ecological Security Pattern—A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About