No abstract

Our study uses regional-scale maps to quantify carbon storage and sequestration from different land use types to evaluate the effects of future land use scenarios. We developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the spatiotemporal impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the provision and value of the carbon storage and sequestration during the historical period (2000–2019) and predicted scenarios (2019–2046) in the Jiroft plain, Iran. We integrated several analytic tools for our analysis, which was comprised of Google Earth Engine (GEE), Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model, Intensity Analysis (IAA), and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Our results demonstrate that: (1) agriculture and urban expansion led to a considerable decrease in carbon storage, mainly due to rapid deforestation from 2000–2019; (2) if the historical trend continues under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, it will lead to considerable social costs due to the loss of stored carbon in the plain (2,624,113 Mg) with an annual average sequestration loss of −475,547 Mg; (3) the downward carbon sequestration trend could potentially be reversed by employing the environmentally sound planning (ESP) scenario that is estimated to save 3,705,491 Mg in carbon storage, with annual average sequestration gain of + 605,830 Mg. The design scenarios provide a useful guide for policymakers and local governments to help understand the potential outcomes of the various development strategies, which will ultimately lead to more effective ecosystem management.