Land Change Modelling to Inform Strategic Decisions on Forest Cover and CO₂ Emissions in Eastern Madagascar

Abstract

Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO 2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.

The role of palaeoecology in reconciling biodiversity conservation, livelihoods and carbon storage in Madagascar

“…Taviala (agroforestry) can help to maintain forest cover and also provides food and other resources as well as opportunities for producing high value cash crops such as vanilla and silk (Virah-Sawmy et al, 2015;Reuter et al, 2016;Rakotonarivo et al, 2017;FIGURE 4 An integrated assessment of landscapes that considers landscape history, current ecological knowledge of pattern and process, and stakeholder perspectives on the history, culture and ecosystem services that landscapes provide. Hending et al, 2018;Hewson et al, 2019;Hending et al, 2020;Wurz et al, 2022). The of agroforestry to biodiversity are greater in forest-derived than fallow-derived land (Osen et al, 2021) Multiple livelihood streams from Taviala can buffer households against environmental shocks and improve the security of land-tenure, as well as providing habitat for biodiversity (Rakotonarivo et al, 2017;Schüßler et al, 2020).…”

Constraints on Rice Cultivation in Eastern Madagascar: Which Factors Matter to Smallholders, and Which Influence Food Security?

“…Low productivity, lack of economic alternatives and population growth fosters agricultural expansion at the expense of forests (Styger et al, 2007). As Madagascar's population of around 26 million people is expected to double by 2050 (UN DESA, 2019) and swidden agriculture is expected to persist (Heinimann et al, 2017), the safeguarding of remaining forests will largely depend on increasing rice yields per area and improving food security of smallholders (Brooks et al, 2009;Hewson et al, 2019).…”

“…During the last years, Madagascar has been reliant on rice imports to meet domestic consumption (USDA, 2020). With Madagascar's population estimated to double by 2050 and with low yields particularly of rainfed rice, self-sufficiency in rice production will be difficult to achieve, although the Malagasy government is committed to increasing domestic production with an emphasis on irrigated rice (Hewson et al, 2019;JICA, 2013).…”

North–South Dialogue on Territorial Policies and Discourses: Insights for the Future of Nature Conservation

“…With respect to scientific production, a technical approach to this relationship prevails, mainly aimed at identifying spatial relationships between different natural elements and land uses i.e., [34,35]. Additionally, we find many studies on the impacts or conflicts between agriculture or other human practices and conservation i.e., [36,37]. However, political approaches focusing on actors, discourses and interactions are less frequent [38].…”