Sustainable land-system transformations are necessary to avert biodiversity and climate collapse. However, it remains unclear where entry points for transformations exist in complex land systems. Here, we conceptualize land systems along land-use trajectories, which allows us to identify and evaluate leverage points, i.e., entry points on the trajectory where targeted interventions have particular leverage to influence land-use decisions. We apply this framework in the biodiversity hotspot Madagascar. In the northeast, smallholder agriculture results in a land-use trajectory originating in old-growth forests and spanning from forest fragments to shifting hill rice cultivation and vanilla agroforests. Integrating interdisciplinary empirical data on seven taxa, five ecosystem services, and three measures of agricultural productivity, we assess trade-offs and cobenefits of land-use decisions at three leverage points along the trajectory. These trade-offs and cobenefits differ between leverage points: Two leverage points are situated at the conversion of old-growth forests and forest fragments to shifting cultivation and agroforestry, resulting in considerable trade-offs, especially between endemic biodiversity and agricultural productivity. Here, interventions enabling smallholders to conserve forests are necessary. This is urgent since ongoing forest loss threatens to eliminate these leverage points due to path dependency. The third leverage point allows for the restoration of land under shifting cultivation through vanilla agroforests and offers cobenefits between restoration goals and agricultural productivity. The co-occurring leverage points highlight that conservation and restoration are simultaneously necessary to avert collapse of multifunctional mosaic landscapes. Methodologically, the framework highlights the importance of considering path dependency along trajectories to achieve sustainable land-system transformations.

Land‐use change is the most important driver of biodiversity loss worldwide and particularly so in the tropics, where natural habitats are transformed into large‐scale monocultures or heterogeneous landscape mosaics of largely unknown conservation value. Using birds as an indicator taxon, we evaluated the conservation value of a landscape mosaic in northeastern Madagascar, a biodiversity hotspot and the center of global vanilla production. We assessed bird species richness and composition by conducting point counts across seven prevalent land‐use types (forest‐ and fallow‐derived vanilla agroforests, woody and herbaceous fallow that are part of a shifting cultivation system, rice paddy, forest fragment and contiguous old‐growth forest). We find that old‐growth forest had the highest species richness, driven by a high share of endemics. Species richness and community composition in forest‐derived vanilla agroforest were similar to forest fragment, whereas fallow‐derived vanilla agroforest was most comparable to woody fallow. The open land‐use types herbaceous fallow and rice paddy had fewest species. Across forest fragments, vanilla agroforests, and woody fallows, endemic bird species richness was positively correlated to landscape‐scale forest cover. We conclude that both fallow‐ and forest‐derived vanilla agroforests play an important but contrasting role for bird conservation: Fallow‐derived agroforests are less valuable but take fallow land out of the shifting cultivation cycle, possibly preventing further degradation. Conversely, forest‐derived agroforests contribute to forest degradation but may avoid total loss of tree cover from forest fragments. Considering the land‐use history of agroforests may thus be a promising avenue for future research beyond the case of vanilla. Abstract in Malagasay is available with online material