Lahar at Kali Konto after the 2014 Eruption of Kelud Volcano, East Java: Impacts and Risk

Dibyosaputro, Suprapto; Dipayana, Gilang Arya; Nugraha, Henky; Pratiwi, Kartika; Valeda, Hogy Prima

doi:10.23917/forgeo.v29i1.793

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…More recently at Kelud, Williams et al (2020) conducted a remote building damage and vulnerability assessment, using tephra thicknesses and a published dry deposit density value of 1400 kg m −3 to estimate tephra loading on buildings from Kelud's 2014 eruption. Five days after the eruption began, heavy rainfall measurements were made in an area nearby where building damage was assessed, likely before building residents were able to return and clean tephra from the roofs of all their homes (Dibyosaputro et al 2015). If tephra deposits had absorbed rainfall, then the dry deposit density assumed by Williams et al (2020) would have underestimated tephra loads on roofs, meaning these buildings may be more resistant to damage than the study's vulnerability models suggest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

et al. 2021

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The load a tephra fall deposit applies to an underlying surface is a key factor controlling its potential to damage a wide range of assets including buildings, trees, crops and powerlines. Though it has long been recognised that loading can increase when deposits absorb rainfall, few efforts have been made to quantify likely load increases. This study builds on previous theoretical work, using an experimental approach to quantify change in load as a function of grainsize distribution, rainfall intensity and duration. A total of 20 laboratory experiments were carried out for ~ 10-cm thick, dry tephra deposits of varying grainsize and grading, taken to represent different eruptive scenarios (e.g. stable, waxing or waning plume). Tephra was deposited onto a 15° impermeable slope (representing a low pitch roof) and exposed to simulated heavy rainfalls of 35 and 70 mm h−1 for durations of up to 2 h. Across all experiments, the maximum load increases ranged from 18 to 30%. Larger increases occurred in fine-grained to medium-grained deposits or in inversely graded deposits, as these retained water more efficiently. The lowest increases occurred in normally graded deposits as rain was unable to infiltrate to the deposit’s base. In deposits composed entirely of coarse tephra, high drainage rates meant the amount of water absorbed was controlled by the deposit’s capillary porosity, rather than its total porosity, resulting in load increases that were smaller than expected. These results suggest that, for low pitch roofs, the maximum deposit load increase due to rainfall is around 30%, significantly lower than the oft-referenced 100%. To complement our experimental results, field measurements of tephra thickness should be supplemented with tephra loading measurements, wherever possible, especially when measurements are made at or near the site of observed damage.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

et al. 2021

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“…Inverting multiple sets of measurements simultaneously resulted in an increased discrepancy between measured and modelled tephra thicknesses at the most important sites, close to villages where visible damage occurred. To reduce discrepancies in these key areas, inversion was repeated using only the UGM data as these were taken sooner after the eruption than others and prior to heavy rainfall on 18 February, which may have disturbed the deposits (Dibyosaputro et al, 2015;Blong et al, 2017a). Ranges of ESPs derived from literature on the 2014 eruption (Table 1) were used to inform our initial ESP ranges to which inversion modelling was applied.…”

Section: Inversion Modelling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

et al. 2020

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Tephra from large explosive eruptions can cause damage to buildings over wide geographical areas, creating a variety of issues for post-eruption recovery. This means that evaluating the extent and nature of likely building damage from future eruptions is an important aspect of volcanic risk assessment. However, our ability to make accurate assessments is currently limited by poor characterisation of how buildings perform under varying tephra loads. This study presents a method to remotely assess building damage to increase the quantity of data available for developing new tephra fall building vulnerability models. Given the large number of damaged buildings and the high potential for loss in future eruptions, we use the Kelud 2014 eruption as a case study. A total of 1154 buildings affected by falls 1–10 cm thick were assessed, with 790 showing signs that they sustained damage in the time between pre- and post-eruption satellite image acquisitions. Only 27 of the buildings surveyed appear to have experienced severe roof or building collapse. Damage was more commonly characterised by collapse of roof overhangs and verandas or damage that required roof cladding replacement. To estimate tephra loads received by each building we used Tephra2 inversion and interpolation of hand-contoured isopachs on the same set of deposit measurements. Combining tephra loads from both methods with our damage assessment, we develop the first sets of tephra fall fragility curves that consider damage severities lower than severe roof collapse. Weighted prediction accuracies are calculated for the curves using K-fold cross validation, with scores between 0.68 and 0.75 comparable to those for fragility curves developed for other natural hazards. Remote assessment of tephra fall building damage is highly complementary to traditional field-based surveying and both approaches should ideally be adopted to improve our understanding of tephra fall impacts following future damaging eruptions.

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“…Kelud ever recorded was the construction of the drainage canal in Srinjing Village at the time of the Ancient Mataram Kingdom (Arif, 2014) and is listed in Harinjing Inscription 804 AD (Figure 3). The construction of a drainage canal was intended to reduce the volume of water in Konto River so that the lahar would not overflow into the river bank and reduce the damage at agricultural areas (Dibyosaputro et al, 2015) The Dutch Government in 1919 carried out the next disaster management strategy. The eruption of Mt.…”

Section: B Countermeasure Structures To Reduce Hazards From Mt Kelumentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Land Resources Management at the Mount Kelud, Indonesia

2017

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There is a contradictive situation between the theory that believes that high volcanic hazard areas should be for limited production zones and those areas that are intensively utilised for several production activities. This paper tries to discuss that contradictive situation from both the perspective of natural hazards and natural resources, therefore, the best options for the land utilisation pattern might be formulated at these high volcanic hazards areas. We conducted landscape analysis that covers volcanic morphology, volcanic materials, and both natural and artificial processes that modify the morphology and materials characteristics. The natural processes occurring in the high volcanic hazard might cover non-volcanic processes such as erosion and landslide. The artificial processes were usually considered as land utilisation activities by the local community. In such areas where both natural and artificial processes occurred, we conducted in-depth interviews to assess the community perception on thread and benefits of the last Kelud Eruption in February 2014. We evaluated the current land resources utilisation and portrayed the local adaptive land resource utilisation. There were three types of land resources available at the active volcano: space, natural scenery, and volcanic materials. The availability of these land resources was in a dynamic condition both in terms of quality and quantity. Immediately after the eruption, the natural scenery made the area attractive as a tourist destination. Following the high intensity of rainfall, the volcanic materials might be used as high-quality construction materials. The available space might be utilised for any purposes after the situation became relatively stable. The current space was mostly used for agricultural enterprises which accommodates the physical and socio-cultural characteristics of the active volcano environment.

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Lahar at Kali Konto after the 2014 Eruption of Kelud Volcano, East Java: Impacts and Risk

Cited by 12 publications

References 2 publications

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

How rainfall influences tephra fall loading — an experimental approach

Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

Dynamic Land Resources Management at the Mount Kelud, Indonesia

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