Joining, Leaving, and Staying in the American Indian/Alaska Native Race Category Between 2000 and 2010

Abstract

Conceptualizing and operationalizing American Indian populations is challenging. Each census for decades has seen the American Indian population increase substantially more than expected, with indirect and qualitative evidence that this is due to changes in individuals' race responses. We apply uniquely suited (but not nationally representative) linked data from the 2000 and 2010 decennial censuses (N= 3.1 million) and the 2006–2010 American Community Survey (N = 188,131) to address three research questions. First, to what extent do American Indian people have different race responses across data sources? We find considerable race response change, especially among multiple-race and/or Hispanic American Indians. Second, how are people who change responses different from or similar to those who do not? We find three sets of American Indians: those who (1) had the same race and Hispanic responses in 2000 and 2010, (2) moved between single-race and multiple-race American Indian responses, and (3) added or dropped the American Indian response, thus joining or leaving the enumerated American Indian population. People in groups (1) and (2) were relatively likely to report a tribe, live in an American Indian area, report American Indian ancestry, and live in the West. Third, how are people who join a group different from or similar to those who leave it? Multivariate models show general similarity between joiners and leavers in group (1) and in group (2). Population turnover is hidden in cross-sectional comparisons; people joining each subpopulation of American Indians are similar in number and characteristics to those who leave it.

Counting America’s First Peoples

“…Thus, the set of individuals who self-identify as AIAN changes over time. 8 Response change into, and probably out of, the AIAN race response group has been going on for decades (e.g., Eschbach 1993; Liebler, Bhaskar, and Porter 2016; Liebler and Ortyl 2014; Passel 1976, 1997). Race response change can be seen even in cross-sectional data by comparing the number of people in one age/sex group to that same group a decade later (and 10 years older).…”

“…Research using linked 2000 to 2010 census data shows that response change is more common among people who ever report AIAN race than it is among the larger race groups (Liebler et al 2017). A person reported as single-race AIAN in 2000 or 2010 is often reported as multiple-race AIAN or reported as a different single-race (usually white if they reported being non-Hispanic, and Some Other Race if they reported Hispanic origins) in the other year (Liebler, Bhaskar, and Porter 2016). Countervailing flows of response changes are similar in size, which hides them in single-year data (Liebler et al 2016, 2017).…”

“…A person reported as single-race AIAN in 2000 or 2010 is often reported as multiple-race AIAN or reported as a different single-race (usually white if they reported being non-Hispanic, and Some Other Race if they reported Hispanic origins) in the other year (Liebler, Bhaskar, and Porter 2016). Countervailing flows of response changes are similar in size, which hides them in single-year data (Liebler et al 2016, 2017). This means that comparing characteristics of the AIAN population in 2000 to the AIAN population in 2010 is like comparing the population of Minneapolis in 2000 to that in 2010 – it is not safe to presume that you are comparing the same set of people.…”

Fertility change in the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 1980–2010

“…The estimates of the number of AI/AN women of childbearing age who are at risk of a birth (the denominator for fertility rates) come from census population counts. Since 1960, when people were first allowed to self-identify their race in the census, the AI/AN population has grown more rapidly than demographers would predict from birth rates because people join the population through voluntary self-identification (Jobe 2004;Liebler, Bhaskar, and Porter 2016). After the 2000 census allowed people to select multiple races, the enumerated AI/AN population doubled from two million in 1990 to four million in 2000 (Liebler and Ortyl 2014).…”

“…A high proportion of individuals who identify as AI/AN at one point in time change racial identification between census years; fewer than one-third of people who included an AI/AN identification in 2000 or 2010 had the same race and ethnicity responses in both of those censuses (Liebler, Bhaskar, and Porter 2016). It is possible that changes in the composition of the selfidentified AI/AN population are related to changes in fertility.…”