Fertility change in the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 1980–2010

Cannon, Sarah R.; Percheski, Christine

doi:10.4054/demres.2017.37.1

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Snipp (1997) shows that total fertility rates for Native American women are declining between 1970 and 1990 and that the total fertility rates for Native American women living in nonmetro areas are consistently higher than for those living in metro areas. Additionally, Cannon and Percheski (2017) find evidence that the declining total fertility rate for the American Indian and Alaska Native population is unlikely to be due solely to changes in self-identification in the census. They suggest changes in marriage patterns as one explanation for the changing fertility rates but recommend further investigation into geographic regions as a possible additional driver of these changing patterns.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the Relocation Program on Native American Migration and Fertility

Kopriva

2024

J. Econ. Hist.

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This paper estimates the migratory and fertility effects of the federal Relocation Program, which attempted to move Native American individuals to urban areas under the promises of financial assistance and job training. I find the Relocation Program increased the Native American population in the target cities by more than 100,000 people. I also find that second- and third-generation Native American women living in cities have a 50 percent lower fertility rate than those living in areas with historically large Native American populations. These findings indicate that this program meaningfully shifted the spatial distribution of the Native American population.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the Relocation Program on Native American Migration and Fertility

Kopriva

2024

J. Econ. Hist.

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“…In addition, the lack of historical decennial census data makes it virtually impossible to use "cohort change ratios," a variant of the cohort-component method that is often employed in conjunction with decennial census data when a population is "small" and vital statistics data are not available (Baker, Swanson, Tayman, and Tedrow 2017). An example of the difficulty of this task is found in recent work by Cannon and Percheski (2017) who discuss some of the obstacles facing an analyst who attempts to assemble valid fertility rates for the American Indian and Alaska Native population from 1980 to 2010. As noted in the preceding section in regard to virtually all Native American tribes, in addition to changing self-identification in terms of race and ethnicity, these obstacles include under-registration in terms of vital event systems and ethnic/ race misclassification.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting a Tribal Population Using the Cohort-Component Method: A Case Study of the Hopi

Swanson

2022

Popul Res Policy Rev

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Population forecasting is a difficult endeavor. When it involves a "small" population, forecasting becomes even more difficult because of the lack of adequate input data to appropriately implement a technique preferred by demographers, the cohortcomponent method (CCM). Small populations also are subject to high levels of stochastic uncertainty, which can lead to substantial temporal fluctuations in size as well as mortality, fertility, and migration rates over short periods of time. When the population is further defined in terms of characteristics such as tribal membership requirements, the acquisition of relevant age-sex and component data for the discrete population adds even more difficulty because the usual data sources may not have precise data for a given tribe, especially when there is a need for long-term forecasts as is the case in disputes over water allotments. In this case study of the Hopi tribal population, I show that these problems can be overcome, resulting in reasonably accurate forecasts over a long period of time. To do this, I identify three key input data sources: (1) an historic tribal census that serves as the basis for tribal membership; (2) the Social Security Administration's life tables, which are specific to cohorts by year of birth, staring in 1900; and (3) an accurate annual record of tribal membership record that covers a time period that can be used as a benchmark once the forecast is launched from the historic tribal census. For this case study. these three data sources allow me to launch an 80 year CCM forecast of the Hopi Tribal Population from its 1937 tribal census to 2017 and conduct an ex post facto assessment of the accuracy of the forecasted total population in five-year increments from 1992 to 2017 using the annual tribal membership roll for this period; the assessment finds that the forecast matches up well with the tribal membership roll. So without adjustments, the forecast is taken out 20 years more, from 2017 to 2037. The results suggest that accurate long-term forecasts are possible using the cohort-component method for the Hopi, which, in turn, suggests that this same CCM process could be used to develop reasonably accurate long-term population forecasts of other tribes for which a tribal census was conducted that is linked to current tribal membership rolls, especially when these forecasts are required in resolving disputes over water allotments.

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“…For the most recent period, a study by Amorevieta-Gentil et al (2013) for 1986 showed that trends in the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Registered Indian population followed trends for Canada as a whole, with about one child more on average and with no sign of convergence with the rest of the population during the period. Persistent higher fertility among Aboriginal people has also been observed in Australia and New Zealand (Johnstone 2011), while in the United States American Indians' and Alaska Natives' fertility has declined in recent years (Cannon and Percheski 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Fertility of Aboriginal People in Canada: An Overview of Trends at the Turn of the 21st Century

Morency

Caron-Malenfant

Daignault³

2018

aps

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This paper aims to give an overview of trends regarding the fertility of Aboriginal people in Canada at the turn of the 21st century (mostly between 1996 and 2011). Total fertility rates and fertility rates by age group are presented for the Aboriginal population as a whole, but also for First Nations, Métis, and Inuit, as well as for the population with Registered Indian status, using various data sources (past censuses, National Household Survey, vital statistics, and Indian Register). Results of a multivariate analysis are presented. This multivariate analysis is conducted in order to improve our understanding of the dynamic behind the fertility behaviour of the Aboriginal population.

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Fertility change in the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 1980–2010

Cited by 4 publications

References 5 publications

Impacts of the Relocation Program on Native American Migration and Fertility

Impacts of the Relocation Program on Native American Migration and Fertility

Forecasting a Tribal Population Using the Cohort-Component Method: A Case Study of the Hopi

Fertility of Aboriginal People in Canada: An Overview of Trends at the Turn of the 21st Century

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