Is Public Long-Term Care Insurance Necessary?

Miyazawa, Kazutoshi; Moudoukoutas, Panos; Yagi, Tadashi

doi:10.2307/253774

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Japan's super-aging demographic trends present a series of policy challenges for which a detailed model of competing risks for the future elderly would be useful (Ogawa, Mason et al 2007). Long-term care insurance program spending (Miyazawa, Moudoukoutas et al 2000) and medical care spending (Dow, Philipson et al 1999, Lee and Skinner 1999, Gerdtham, Lundin et al 2005, Bech, Christiansen et al 2011 will be most directly impacted. The flattening of the pyramidal age structure and aging in general have implications for optimal retirement decisions (Poterba 2014), savings behavior (Bloom, Canning et al 2003, Finkelstein andPoterba 2004), the progress of interest rates Becker 1998, Prettner andCanning 2012), family caregiving (Gannon and Davin 2010) and labor participation (Imrohoroğlu and Kitao 2012), as well as intergenerational wealth transfer programs and policies (Behrman and Parker 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Context of Functional Limitations and Disability in Russia

Ivanova¹,

Lopakov²,

Zemlyanova³

et al. 2019

Soc.Asp.Pop.Hlth

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Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan's elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Context of Functional Limitations and Disability in Russia

Ivanova¹,

Lopakov²,

Zemlyanova³

et al. 2019

Soc.Asp.Pop.Hlth

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“…He pointed out that his 1 LTC includes the health and social support services provided to those with chronic illness or physical or mental disability to help them achieve and maintain an optimal level of functioning. 2 Some authors have argued the benefits of having LTC social insurance mechanisms to complement family and volunteer care arrangements (Miyazawa et al 2000;Barr 2010;Zuchandke et al 2010;Guillen and Comas-Herrera 2012). 3 CFC programmes (Da Roit et al 2016) have various names and forms, including direct payments, care allowances, attendance allowances, individual budgets, personal budgets and self-directed care.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care

Vidal‐Meliá

Ventura-Marco²,

Pla-Porcel³

2018

Journal of Pension Economics and Finance

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This paper explores a notional defined contribution (NDC) approach aimed at helping pensioners to cope with the cost of long-term care (LTC). It develops the necessary technicalities to fully integrate an LTC benefit, graded according to the annuitant's degree of disability, into a generic NDC retirement framework with a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. It also discusses the policy implications of various issues that should be taken into account before any decision is made to put the model into practice. Finally, to enable policymakers to better understand how the proposal would function, the paper includes a realistic numerical example.

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“…Long-term care insurance program spending (Miyazawa, Moudoukoutas et al 2000) and medical care spending (Dow, Philipson et al 1999, Lee and Skinner 1999, Gerdtham, Lundin et al 2005, Bech, Christiansen et al 2011) will be most directly impacted. Our study may hold particular interest for Japan’s policymakers with respect to planning for long-term care insurance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Chen

Jalal

Hashimoto

et al. 2016

The Journal of the Economics of Ageing

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Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future.

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Is Public Long-Term Care Insurance Necessary?

Cited by 11 publications

References 9 publications

Social Context of Functional Limitations and Disability in Russia

Social Context of Functional Limitations and Disability in Russia

An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care

Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

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