Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. This paper provides the first estimate of the actuarial balance of the Spanish contributory pension system for the old age contingency, based on official data. The novel entry in the balance sheet, named "Contribution Asset" or "Hidden Asset", is at the centre of the theoretical discussion. A comparison between the official balance sheet for the Swedish national account system and our balance sheet for the Spanish system is also provided. The main finding is that the Spanish pension system has an insolvency rate of 31.4 %. The policy implication is that unless current legislation is reformed, Spanish taxpayers (the plan sponsor) should count on making transfers to the pension system with a present discounted value of 31.4 % of current liabilities. Moreover, a comparison of the consecutive balance sheets for 2001-06 shows that the degree of insolvency is growing over time, even though the cash-flow outcome has improved over the same period. Taking steps to reverse this trend and restore solvency is in the Spanish taxpayers' interest, and possibly also in the interest of those in the European Union who recognise that there is a chance that they may have to support the Spanish budget in the future. Terms of use: Documents inJEL Code: H55, J26, M49.Keywords: retirement, pay-as-you-go system, accountancy, solvency, pensions, Spain. María del Carmen Boado-Penas Department of Financial Economics and

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In this paper, we develop a theoretical basis for drawing up a "Swedish" type actuarial balance sheet for a defined benefit pay-as-you-go (DB PAYG) scheme with retirement and disability benefits. Our model enables us to obtain the system's expected average turnover duration, measure the scheme's solvency and explore the phenomenon identified as "pension reclassification", a widespread practice that masks the system's real status unless further pension information becomes available. The model is clearly linked to actuarial practice in social security and gives partial support to the practical adaptation of Swedish methodology carried out by OSFI (2012) in applying the concept of the contribution asset to the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP) balance sheet, which includes disability and survivor benefits.

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The aim of this paper is twofold: to show the usefulness of automatic balance mechanisms (ABMs) and to explore the issue of introducing an ABM into the Spanish state contributory retirement pension system. With this in mind, we define the concept of the ABM and carry out an analysis of that existing in Sweden, Canada, Germany, Japan and Finland. We also present an indicator of the Spanish system's solvency which emerges from the actuarial balance sheet, and simulates the effect that certain changes in the parameters of the present system would have on solvency, showing the direction that could be taken if the mechanism were to be introduced in Spain. A comparison between the official balance sheet for the Swedish notional account system and our balance sheet for the Spanish contributory pension system is also provided.

This paper develops a social insurance accounting model for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme combining retirement and long-term care (LTC) contingencies. The procedure relies on standard double-entry bookkeeping and enables us to compile a "Swedish" type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) following a framework equivalent to an open group approach. This methodology is suitable for reporting the system's solvency status and can show periodical changes in the system's financial position by means of an income statement. The information underpinning the actuarial valuation is based on events and transactions that are verifiable at the valuation date, without considering expected future trends. The paper also contains an illustrative example to make it easier for policymakers to understand the main advantages and difficulties of our proposal. The policy conclusions stress the need to properly report social insurance benefits to enhance transparency and sustainability and to improve decision-making because it is in the public interest to do so.

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This article aims to quantify the "aggregate subjective economic" risk to which beneficiaries would be exposed if a retirement pension system based on notional account philosophy were introduced. We use scenario generation techniques to make projections of the factors that determine the real expected internal rate of return (IRR) and the expected replacement rate (RR) for the beneficiary according to six retirement formulae based on the most widely accepted rates or indices. We then apply the model to the case of Spain. Our projections are based on Herce and Alonso's macroeconomic scenario 2000-2050 (2000) and include information about the past performance of the indices and the time period the forecast is to cover. The results of the IRR calculation-average value, standard deviation, and value-at-risk (VaR)-are analyzed both in objective terms and for different degrees of participants' risk aversion. Copyright The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2006.