Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Caplat, Paul; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T.

doi:10.1007/s12080-008-0021-5

Cited by 30 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…To complicate things, climate directly or indirectly influences disturbance dynamics and interacts with other drivers of changes (Caplat et al 2008). Since the 1970s, several major disturbance events-a major ice storm in the southern portion of the study area in 1998 (Beaudet et al 1999), spruce budworm outbreaks in the boreal forests, northward progression of logging activities (Crête andMarzell 2006, Duchesne andOuimet 2008), among others-have all influenced local regeneration and stand dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

2014

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Citation: Boisvert-Marsh, L., C. Périé, S. de Blois. 2014. Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes. Ecosphere 5(7):83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00111.1Abstract. Warming has been particularly strong at high latitudes in recent decades and bioclimatic models predict northern shifts in optimal conditions for most species. Climate is a strong predictor of site occupancy for trees at broad spatial scales and interacts with other drivers of forest dynamics. Recent changes in distribution and occupancy patterns should therefore provide the best evidence of a tree species' potential to shift in the direction predicted by bioclimatic models. Studies examining recent distribution changes for plants, however, have mostly done so along altitudinal gradients or have used the latitudinal position of juvenile trees relative to adult ones to infer range dynamics. This study provides rare evidence of latitudinal shifts for 11 northern tree species by assessing recent changes in distribution using globally significant inventories from 1970 to 2002. It also compares observed trends with those inferred from the position of juveniles relative to trees in a single survey. Samplings cover 6456 forest plots in temperate and boreal forests up to treeline in eastern North America. The average overall latitudinal shift was 3.07 6 4.37 km northward although responses were species-specific. Shifts were detected more for juvenile than for adult trees and significant northward ones were detected more at northern range limits than at the median. All species demonstrated increased frequency of plot occupancy for saplings while occupancy generally decreased for adult trees. Five out of the 11 species examined (Acer rubrum, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Fagus grandifolia, and Populus tremuloides) showed significant distributional shifts consistent with northward migration. Saplings of Abies balsamea, Picea glauca, and Picea mariana, on the other hand, showed southward shifting trends. Natural and human disturbances undoubtedly interact with climate to determine forest dynamics; this study shows whether their combined effect can shift distribution in the direction predicted by bioclimatic models. Only continued monitoring will reveal whether these observations are just transient dynamics or indicative of shifting range in this century. Our study provides a benchmark against which to assess future observations of latitudinal shifts for trees.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

2014

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“…The second hypothesis, heavily based in theoretical work, emphasizes the importance of local factors, such as competition from resident species, for determining establishment abilities of migrating species (Overpeck et al 1990; Sykes and Prentice 1996;Moorcroft et al 2006). Species interactions at the local scale may ultimately determine whether a migrating tree is successful in establishing or not (Caplat et al 2008;Ibáñez et al 2009), where the removal of resident competitors, such as through disturbance events (Scheller and MladenoV 2005), may facilitate the establishment of migrating trees in otherwise competitive environments.…”

Section: Electronic Supplementary Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Treefall gaps working at smaller timescales than other disturbance regimes such as Wre (Clark 1989), combined with increases in local temperatures and its associated eVects on species ranges, may facilitate the establishment of northward migrating tree species in this broad ecotone. Although theoretical studies have investigated how disturbance aVects establishment abilities of migrating tree species in response to climate change (Scheller and MladenoV 2005;Caplat et al 2008), this has yet to be tested in natural forest stands. Identifying whether southern tree species establish in gaps can have great implications for explaining opportunistic establishment through disturbance in other ecotones where species migration is predicted to occur.…”

Section: Electronic Supplementary Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northward migrating trees establish in treefall gaps at the northern limit of the temperate–boreal ecotone, Ontario, Canada

2010

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Climate change is expected to promote migration of species. In ecotones, areas of ecological tension, disturbances may provide opportunities for some migrating species to establish in otherwise competitive environments. The size of and time since disturbance may determine the establishment ability of these species. We investigated gap dynamics of an old-growth red pine (Pinus resinosa Sol. ex Aiton) forest in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest in northern Ontario, Canada, a transition zone between temperate and boreal forest. We investigated the effects of gaps of different sizes and ages on tree species abundance and basal area. Our results show that tree species from the temperate forest further south, such as red maple (Acer rubrum L.), red oak (Quercus rubra L.), and white pine (Pinus strobus L.), establish more often in large, old gaps; however, tree species that have more northern distributions, such as black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.), paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), and red pine show no difference in establishment ability with gap size or age. These differences in composition could not be attributed to autogenic succession. We conclude that treefall gaps in this forest facilitate the establishment of northward migrating species, potentially providing a pathway for future forest migration in response to recent changes in climate.

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“…Our populations all had modeled growth rates .1, but were often higher or lower than expected from simple logistic growth. This, in turn, may bias modeled expectations of species responses to climate change, and their migration capabilities (Caplat et al 2008). However, our results show significant negative deviations from the expected model during early stages of population growth.…”

Section: Population Growth Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations ofPinus ponderosa

Lesser

Jackson

2012

Ecology

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The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

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Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Cited by 30 publications

References 73 publications

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

Northward migrating trees establish in treefall gaps at the northern limit of the temperate–boreal ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations ofPinus ponderosa

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