Aim The impact of multiple stressors on biodiversity is one of the most pressing questions in ecology and biodiversity conservation. Here we critically assess how often and efficiently two main drivers of global change have been simultaneously integrated into research, with the aim of providing practical solutions for better integration in the future. We focus on the integration of climate change (CC) and land‐use change (LUC) when studying changes in species distributions. Location Global. Methods We analysed the peer‐reviewed literature on the effects of CC and LUC on observed changes in species distributions, i.e. including species range and abundance, between 2000 and 2014. Results Studies integrating CC and LUC remain extremely scarce, which hampers our ability to develop appropriate conservation strategies. The lack of CC–LUC integration is likely to be a result of insufficient recognition of the co‐occurrence of CC and LUC at all scales, covariation and interactions between CC and LUC, as well as correlations between species thermal and habitat requirements. Practical guidelines for the study of these interactive effects include considering multiple drivers and processes when designing studies, using available long‐term datasets on multiple drivers, revisiting single‐driver studies with additional drivers or conducting comparative studies and meta‐analyses. Combining various methodological approaches, including time lags and adaptation processes, represent further avenues to improve global change science. Main conclusions Despite repeated claims for a better integration of multiple drivers, the effects of CC and LUC on species distributions and abundances have been mostly studied in isolation, which calls for a shift of standards towards more integrative global change science. The guidelines proposed here will encourage study designs that account for multiple drivers and improve our understanding of synergies or antagonisms among drivers.
Abstract. Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/ theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.
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